The boys breakdown matchups heading into Fantasy Championship Week and give you the locks for gambling picks in Week 16.
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Hello shrewdness. Merry Christmas to all of you
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out there in Guillotine Fantasyland.
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We are back for another fun week.
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We've got a great show lined up for you.
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Want to do some first. Thank you from from our
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Christmas little point of view here.
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Thank you so much in the season of gratitude to over 100
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subscribers. Thank you so much for checking
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our stuff. The web page is doing great.
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Our socials are fun, hopefully followed with our last one.
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We got a another winner winner chicken dinner on our power
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parley last night. Frankly, as long as you're
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picking San Francisco players, you were going to win.
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Last night kind of played out. So this week we're going to talk
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about championship previews. So we're going to go through the
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main players, kind of our end gamers and who their matchups
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are. So if you got a a decision
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between one or two of these guys, you got to sit somebody
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because everybody's team is stacked.
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Now we're in the final 2. So congratulations making it to
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the championship. We're going to go through those
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previews for you and who we like and some of the matchups that
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kind of make us nervous. We're going to talk about
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Chisholm's man, heck of a run, but he lost his head in the
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listener league, so we got third place.
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We're going to go through that. We're going to talk about it for
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a little bit. Kind of the choices he made,
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what could he have done better, what lessons learned for the
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rest of us. So you go into your championship
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week with just a little bit more ammo, and then after that we're
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going to do our picks for this week, our gambling picks.
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So that's how we're going to run it this week.
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So stay with us. Have fun.
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Let's get it started. So I want to throw it over to
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Chiz. So heck of a season.
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Congratulations. They keep representing the three
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worthless hosts of this show. At least one of us did well
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because one. Of us.
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Well, names, but he might be wearing a pink shirt.
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Went out in the first week in our own.
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League happens to everybody, happens to everybody.
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That Week 1 score is actually higher than four other scores
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that went out late in the season with stacked teams.
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Just crazy. But I think some of our new
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folks, So Tim out there, great job.
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He won our shrewdness Zombie League this week.
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So we got the champion on that. It was a good game against
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Brett. So one of our high school
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buddies, he was the runner up in that one.
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So if you were doing the Zombie league in your particular
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Guillotine league, congratulations as you got those
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wrapped up. But first let's kick it over to
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Chase. Let's talk about the week that
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was and just go. And sometimes that this the burn
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hurts, the sting hurts. But what happened?
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Sting hurts. Sting definitely hurts.
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But I'll tell you, I think a lot of it was my shoulders were
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really tired from carrying the shrewdness podcast on on my
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shoulders for so long. I finally had to succumb to the
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weight of the expectations. And you know, I was as we as we
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were discussing, I I was out kicking my coverage.
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I did not have, I did not have the All Star line up.
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Couple things 2. Two things will kill you in in
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guillotine, 1 injuries and two, starting the wrong person.
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And yeah, both happened to me. One Patrick Mahomes went down.
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Luckily I picked up Jared Goff who put up a nice 26 for me.
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That was a good pick up, yeah. But that was good.
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Guys I were counting on, as in gamers really faded down the
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stretch and Mecca Ebuka the last few weeks was trash.
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I refused to go off him. This is a good lesson for folks
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in Guillotine. Yeah, I was waiting and bidding
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to get him Akbuka because I was like, he's an end game guy.
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So when I got him, he had a couple bad weeks in a row and I
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was like, I refused. Yeah, to believe he wasn't that
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guy. And so I started him this week.
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He gave me a whopping 5 points. You know what it reminds me of?
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I want to use a good metaphor here.
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So if you guys have ever played roulette and you see the, the
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the colors come up red, red, red, red, like 4 bad weeks in a
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row, it's got to be black eventually.
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That's just the odds. What's the chance of it going
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red five times in a row? That's what Mecca Ibuka did to
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owners this season. What's the chance that Mecca's
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going to be? He was so good at the beginning.
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It was all black, babe. We were betting on Black winning
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and he had a couple bad weeks and you just keep riding the
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dead horse all the way and that's.
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I, I wouldn't give up on him. The the all the predictions told
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me I needed to start Stefan Diggs instead of him.
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I wouldn't do it. Stefan put up 22 and make a Buca
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put up five. And then I had Trey McBride, the
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guy who was my bell horse cow, finally put up a stinker.
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He had four catches for 27 yards.
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The six points from him, that's not going to do it.
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And then the final death knell for me was I the last of my
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hopes were riding on Trayvon Henderson.
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Yeah. Went out with a concussion in
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the first quarter and that was that combination just wasn't
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going to happen. I had great weeks out of I did
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have the running backs to do it. I had the running backs to do
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it. I had Bijan Robinson who put up
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30. I had James Cook put up 26.
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Those are two end game guys. I have no regrets about riding
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those horses. And I had an end game tight end
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and I had an end game quarterback, but he got hurt.
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Wide receivers were weak for me and that came back to bite me.
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I, I did not have the white, the right white outs and good lesson
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for you guys. I was a guy who was on the ropes
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early in our league. I was at the bottom of the
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league every week. And what you do when that
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happens is you got to panic a little bit because you got to
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live week to week, which means got to spend your fab early.
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So you spend your fab early and everyone around me for the last,
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you know, three or four or five weeks have been getting better
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and I've been holding on just like hoping guys are going to
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have big games and eventually that catches up with you.
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The two guys that are left are really good.
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They've got a real good shot at winning.
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But it was a fun ride. I'm happy with third.
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But yeah, so look, some of those lessons there, you guys probably
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know, don't overthink too much, kind of follow some trends cause
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trends are real. Yeah, and here's a trend on that
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note. So another guy that's been keep
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betting on roulette and like, well, it's gotta be good this
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week. Jonathan Taylor has been the guy
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who he was, I mean weeks 5 through 10, he put up 545 games
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over 30 points, which is ridiculous because he was
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getting 3 touchdowns a week and a lot of catches and receiving
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touchdowns the last five weeks. So after the bye week in week
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11, he came out of the bye terrible.
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So 16 for 58. He hasn't had 100 yard game
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since week 10. They're they're.
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Like over, aren't they? Out of their by, yeah.
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Think you're right, they haven't won a game.
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So the Colts have just absolutely they they went to the
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by and rested up and stayed home.
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I guess. I'm not really sure, but
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Jonathan Taylor hasn't been the same and he's been barely
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averaging. I don't even know if he's been
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averaging 4 yards to carry. Actually, I know he hasn't when
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you look at these stats like he's been at best 4 yards to
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carry on his good games. So it's just one of those.
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And he's going against Jacksonville, who is one of the
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tougher rush defenses in the league if this is your
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championship week. But you can't bench him.
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I know, but good Lord I think he's won if you actually have an
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option. You can if you've got, I mean,
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you may have a super team at this point, right?
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If you've got another guy, I would look at another guy.
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I hate to say it, but like. Maybe you got like Dijon and CMC
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in your two spots and he's your flex.
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You could definitely maybe consider someone else in the
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flex spot than Jonathan Taylor. And The thing is, I know what
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you're going to do. The same thing Chisholm was
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doing with Ibuka. You look at the beginning of the
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season when Ibuka was an in game player and playing like 1 and
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he's not anymore. He's just not that that player.
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He hasn't put up a week like that.
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It's been a long time. I mean, week 10 is the last time
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Jonathan Taylor was remotely close to being a top 10 back.
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That's right. So.
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That's a long trend right there. That's one that usually.
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Doesn't show. So take a look at their
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opponents, right? Yeah, Pre buy they played the
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Titans, the Raiders, the Cardinals, Titans again, the
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Falcons. Oh, amazingly, they beat all
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those teams, right? And then after the bye, they
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played the Chiefs, the Texans, the Jaguars, the Seahawks, the
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Niners, all playoff teams. Yeah, and then Jacksonville
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again this week, so. Yeah.
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So that's a big reason why it's not.
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Yeah, you're right, Prue. Yeah, it's not terribly
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mystifying why he can't run the ball now, but it's.
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Matchups matter. It is right?
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And then so the last game against Jacksonville since
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brought up 21 for 74 yards and a touchdown.
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So he got in, but that's a 13.4 week and he fumbled, so it's
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actually 11 by the way. So he didn't even get it to 12
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that week. So just temper expectations in
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my opinion this week because Jacksonville is going for the
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one seed in the AFC. If you don't think they're
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bringing their A game against either Phillip Rivers or Riley
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Leonard, all right. But I think it's going to be not
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a lot of running for the Colts. I think they're going to be
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playing from behind again, which is what we saw last night
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against the Niners. Once they get behind, Jonathan
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Taylor's out of the game plan man.
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So if you don't get it in the first half you better hope the
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1st 1530 minutes are pretty good for him.
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But otherwise I think they could be behind her.
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When you have a geriatric quarterback like Phillip Rivers
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leading leading the leg. It props to Phillip Rivers
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though I got to say he did so much better than I thought he
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would do. I set the bar low low
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expectation wise. In fact we did the prop last
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night and Chisholm took Phillip Rivers over 1/6.
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He was like, really? Wow.
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All right, I don't know what you saw from last week's 120 yard
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performance that inspired you so, but God Dang it, that dude
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didn't come out and start bawling.
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Like if the Colts could have played any defense whatsoever.
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Yes, I mean. That was actually a competitive
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game for. He did enough to.
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He did enough to win. As if you're a Colts fan.
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I know you're a snake bitten right now.
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I know you feel it. I just saw this stat today.
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The Colts have played thirty. Well there have been 30
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something games played involving the Colts and or opponents that
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they needed to lose to help their playoff standing in the
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last four weeks I think it was. Every single one of those games
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has gone the wrong way. Every single one for the Colts.
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So they've lost all four of their games and everyone else
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they needed to lose 1. So it is like the universe
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conspiring against you if you're a Colts fan and that is a snake
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bitten franchise anyway. But I'm afraid I'm a feared You
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folks are going to be on the sidelines with us Chiefs fans
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come playoff time. Yeah, does not look good for.
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I think you're single digits chance of making it, but then
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again you are 90 what, 98% chance of making the playoffs
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earlier in the season. So yeah, there are ways to turn
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things around as you that's. Right.
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Right. That was a lot, and now you're
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almost a lot not to make it. So when a hundred 100% of things
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go against you, that. Right.
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Yeah, it's true. That's a great point.
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True. That changes that 98% a lot.
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Definitely. It can go drastic.
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All right, gents, I want to go through some of the games with
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the the high end guys for this week.
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So there's a lot of games, but you know who we're not going to
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be focusing on is probably the Steelers and Browns.
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I don't know who you'd be possibly starting in that game
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that could be of any impact in a guillotine championship and
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frankly, even in just a normal fantasy championship.
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So those are the games we're going to go right by.
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So don't think, Oh my God, the shooters didn't even talk about
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that. What about chador?
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I'm starting chador. No, you're not.
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No, you're not. Good luck to you.
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Good luck to you to be. Half Herald fanning in your
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flex. OK, he's pretty good.
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Like I said, we had another pretty good week last week, but
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hopefully you're not really counting on them unless you're
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in a standard league. So let's start with our
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Christmas Day festivities. Who's going to get the
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championship week started? None other than Dallas versus
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Washington. So in that game really of note,
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you've got CD Lamb, Javonte Williams, Dak and probably
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Ferguson, I don't think I mean. Maybe, although he's falling off
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a lot lately. Yeah.
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And I mean, Pickens is on there too, but I think we.
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Talked last week. If you're still counting on
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George Pickens after seeing he already cut, honest to God, if
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you were starting him in Guillotine, he's not on your
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team because he's on the chop list and you're done.
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And if you accidentally picked him up because you don't have
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any roster restrictions or you're allowed to still pick
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people up, I just don't know if I would.
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But talking about the other guy, so CD Lamb versus the
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Commanders, I feel pretty good about him.
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How do you guys feel about that particular player?
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Oh yeah, must start against Washington.
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For sure. Yeah, I agree.
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I feel like, I feel like that's good.
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I actually like, I actually like Javonte Williams in this game.
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I do. Too, Because I think they're
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going to be ahead and I think they're going to be eating some
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clock and Javonte is not a great option, but he earlier in the
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season, if you remember, he scored a lot of touchdowns.
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He's not a guy that's going to give you a goose egg.
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And I think they are going to feed him the ball a lot.
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So I kind of like him in this game.
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So Chisholm on that, Javonte Williams or Jonathan Taylor, if
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you had both those guys on your team, it's just what we just
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talked about. This is an option.
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Great question. Like I think I'm on the side of
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Javonte Williams guy. Just like the match up better.
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I like the way it's been trending better, everything
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about it. I think I agree.
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I, I, I, I could see the Cowboys being up 24 to nothing in that
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game, you know, pretty easily. And then just like we're going
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to eat clock baby and we're going to feed Javonte and let
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him earn his paycheck and three-point. 2 yards at a time.
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And, and he very easily could get, you know, a couple yard
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touchdown on on any of those drives.
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So I, I think they're gonna, I think there's a lot more upside
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with Javonte probably than Taylor.
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Yeah. And for the rest of the guys, so
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with I mean Pickens, I don't know, maybe.
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I'm not touching pickets. You gotta scratch the picket and
00:15:05
if that's where you're at, if you still have them, I believe
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that's exactly what you're doing.
00:15:09
You're going to get your $2.00 Powerball.
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Yeah. Maybe like do you guys feel
00:15:14
differently on that? Do you feel Pickens is you feel
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comfortable on him? Like on the confidence meter
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you're in the 70s or 80% and I'm just idiot, which could be.
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True. I mean, it's all it's all going
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to come down to who else you have right.
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So we we can keep talking through.
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I think he's more like a Tier 2 guy at this point.
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He's not a clear to tier one must start.
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Yeah, I agree, Prue. I, I think I'm looking at the
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only way I'm starting Pickens at this point is if when I put in
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my starters on whatever website you're using for your guillotine
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league and it shows me 20 points below the next guy, the guy I'm
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playing in the championship, then I say who's the guy who
00:15:56
could could roll a Yahtzee? OK, I'll put Pickens in.
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He has the potential to roll a Yahtzee.
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So maybe that's the only case I'm looking at.
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The up Pickens slot is the #8 wide receiver this week, so on
00:16:10
I. Wouldn't have him that high.
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Me either. I mean there's a lot of guys
00:16:14
like in the same game. I think Mclaurin can out produce
00:16:17
him in the same. Game.
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So they're going to feed him. Dak Prescott, I think he's going
00:16:22
to have a good week. I think that commander's defense
00:16:24
is sought. Too.
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I think he's going to put up high twos, if not 300 yards in
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Lamb and Pickens. Maybe he's just be angry finally
00:16:32
and play. It'd be nice to show up and I
00:16:35
think that's going to be a very high scoring game, mostly on one
00:16:39
side. I think that might be like.
00:16:40
A 30. 414 game. Vegas has that game at 50.5 over
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under. Yeah.
00:16:46
That's probably all on one side. I know it's a -7 for Dallas, but
00:16:50
if you can't see 30 points for Dallas, I mean, I don't know.
00:16:53
I'm not seeing that. It would be crazy.
00:16:55
So that Detroit mini game decks, do you like anybody in that
00:17:00
game? Like this is a really
00:17:02
interesting one because you know, Minnesota's 7 1/2 point
00:17:06
favorite or underdog at home. Underdog.
00:17:08
Yeah, Detroit is like beyond back against the wall here.
00:17:12
Yes, right. Yeah, and here's the deal.
00:17:15
So Max Brosnar, JJ McCarthy, man, every time I try and talk
00:17:19
whoop and he does something good.
00:17:22
Now he's. Got a hand?
00:17:23
Fracture. You got him.
00:17:24
I mean Glass Joe. Man, this dude breaks crossing
00:17:28
the street. I just don't understand.
00:17:30
Like you need to put him in a bubble.
00:17:33
I don't understand what's going on with this guy.
00:17:35
He didn't miss any games in Michigan in all high school, but
00:17:40
now he just crunched her. Hunter right in this game,
00:17:44
though, I don't it's Detroit's going to win handily.
00:17:47
For one. They have to win and the Vikings
00:17:48
are starting Max Brosmer and Max Brosmer can't move the ball at
00:17:52
all. And we have Aaron Jones.
00:17:54
He's kind of on his last leg limping down the stretch and
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he's still probably over better players on the Vikings.
00:18:00
Jordan Mason hasn't done anything.
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I think he actually got hurt. And Jordan Mason got carted off
00:18:05
last game. If I'm thinking about the right
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play. Jefferson, yeah, that's right.
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Too much. I don't want anything to do with
00:18:10
him. Hawkinson might be the only one
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because that's about all as far as Brosmer can throw.
00:18:16
But even that, I mean 4 for 40, that's the upside.
00:18:21
Well. Let's just get off of Minnesota.
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There's nobody I would start from Minnesota at.
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All, Yeah. Like Aaron Jones, if you get
00:18:28
everybody depleted and hurt. Aaron Jefferson.
00:18:31
I think he's. Rosmer I mean.
00:18:34
I think he's the worst start than Pickens.
00:18:36
Yeah, yeah, I agree with you, Prue.
00:18:38
Worst than Pickens for sure. So Jameer Gibbs last game
00:18:41
against Minnesota had 9 carriers for 25 and then three catches
00:18:45
for three yards. He was held to his worst aim of
00:18:48
the season, 5.8 fantasy points. So I don't think that's going to
00:18:52
happen again. Just to be honest.
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I think Jamir Great is way too talented for that to happen
00:18:56
again. And if we just do the old law of
00:18:58
averages, I bet he has a pretty decent game.
00:19:00
I think he has easily, he can pin someone for 100 scrimmage
00:19:03
yards. He'll probably get in the end
00:19:04
zone. So he's super confident about
00:19:07
him and I'm gonna St. Brown super confident.
00:19:10
Jared Goff knows what he's doing.
00:19:11
He can he can play fine. But again, they lost the first
00:19:14
game against the Vikings. We'll see what happens, but I
00:19:17
think those are the only players I feel comfortable about
00:19:20
playing. I don't want to throw one out
00:19:21
there for you guys. Prue How do we feel about
00:19:24
Jameson Williams? I knew you were going to ask
00:19:26
that. I I so I feel better about him
00:19:32
now than I did 3 or 4 weeks ago. He's kind of showed up recently.
00:19:36
Yeah, yeah. He had a he had a decent game
00:19:38
this last week, I think. So if I'm ranking him against
00:19:44
Hickens and Jefferson, I think I'm starting.
00:19:49
I think I'm starting Hickens, but barely, and then Jamo.
00:19:54
I'll throw some stats at you the last four weeks.
00:19:58
Jameson Williams, 7 catches, 144 yards, a touchdown, 7 catches,
00:20:03
96 yards, 7 catches, 134 yards, a touchdown, 5 catches, 70
00:20:08
yards. That's what he's been the last
00:20:11
four weeks. So the floor of five catches
00:20:15
since Week 13 again. If we're talking about following
00:20:19
trends like you've been highlighting, Chis, this is one
00:20:21
of those. Do you believe it?
00:20:24
I was got a month track record, which certainly helps.
00:20:27
But the problem is it is with the problem with trends that you
00:20:31
remember the other trends, the yes, the no catches.
00:20:34
I'm like in a championship week. Which he did have two of.
00:20:39
He had two goose egg weeks so. I don't think that's going to
00:20:43
happen, but I also think they're going to be so far ahead.
00:20:45
This is not going to be a passing infused day.
00:20:48
I think it's going to be a Jameer Gibbs and David
00:20:50
Montgomery day, if anything, and they'll get up.
00:20:52
Don't get me wrong. I mean, I'm in Rao, still going
00:20:54
to move the chains. It's why everybody always loves
00:20:56
I'm in Rao. St.
00:20:57
Brown. Yeah, it's easy office.
00:20:59
It goes through 14, but I think for well, and Gibbs, obviously,
00:21:02
but Jamo is never really the offense.
00:21:06
He's at peace and he's been better lately.
00:21:09
Yeah, I'm, I'm looking at their opponent too, right?
00:21:12
Dallas versus Washington is somewhat similar to Detroit
00:21:15
versus Minnesota as far as it being 1 sided.
00:21:19
Yeah. The difference to me is that
00:21:20
Dallas is primarily a passing offense, and Detroit, yeah,
00:21:24
well, they're just fine running the ball all day long.
00:21:27
If they Yeah, they can they. Do yeah.
00:21:29
Yeah, yeah. So to me, Pickens has more
00:21:34
opportunity than I think. Anyone scared off by Jameer
00:21:37
Gibbs? Last three rushing totals 4338
00:21:42
and 2. I'm not because just.
00:21:47
Because he catches the ball. Yeah, and he had 10 catches last
00:21:53
week for 66 at touchdown. Four and. 77 he's gets that's 21
00:21:59
catches the last three weeks. So, right, that's the main
00:22:03
reason. Like, yeah, his rushing slow,
00:22:05
but so was Patricia McCaffrey until he went off for 115
00:22:09
yesterday. So you, you kind of alluded to
00:22:11
it earlier, Chiz, but you're to the point now that you got a
00:22:14
bunch of studs on your team, it's really, you kind of got to
00:22:17
go for it, right? And it's yeah, for, for once,
00:22:21
you got to look at your upside on your team instead of the
00:22:23
floor. Like you don't really.
00:22:25
Yeah, you're right. Floor now you need a high
00:22:27
upside. Go, go.
00:22:28
What's a good point for you? It's a good point.
00:22:31
It's a kind of different shift. It's a shift in thinking.
00:22:35
It's all it's you know, win or go home the final time.
00:22:40
So you just you got to go for it and and pick your highest upside
00:22:43
guys. Guys like Jameer Gibbs and
00:22:46
Pickens have the opportunity to be 35 to 40 point guys.
00:22:51
What about Montgomery? Have you guys certain him?
00:22:55
Nah, I. Wouldn't.
00:22:56
I'm not. No, he wouldn't be in my lineup
00:22:59
on even traditional fantasy. I'd have to have everybody broke
00:23:02
for Dave Montgomery to be in my lineup.
00:23:04
Too many other options at this point.
00:23:05
Yeah, I agree he doesn't get enough of the rock.
00:23:08
If you got to a championship week and you still have David
00:23:10
Montgomery as one of your starters, Jesus, how the hell
00:23:13
did you get there? We gotta have be on here as a
00:23:15
guest. So if you are like one of the
00:23:17
listeners out there, like I have David Montgomery starting this
00:23:19
week, let us know. You just don't.
00:23:22
Drop it in the comments. Yeah, and we will get you on
00:23:24
next week because I don't know what the rest of your team is.
00:23:27
Because you have the, you have 7 absolute studs.
00:23:31
Right. And David Montgomery.
00:23:33
Exactly right. All right, let's go to our third
00:23:35
game, Denver at Kansas. We have two.
00:23:39
I want you to take this one. Are there any fancy relevant
00:23:42
people, given what we now know, the status of our poor beloved
00:23:46
Chiefs and then how badly the Broncos are going to thrash
00:23:49
them? There's really not.
00:23:51
I'd like to say that Kelsey might get a bunch of catches or
00:23:54
something. Like he did against the Titans
00:23:56
last week. Yeah, no.
00:23:59
Just. That's the, that's really the
00:24:02
only thing I could see is just a bunch of four yard passes and he
00:24:05
racks up, you know, 6 or 7 catches for 3540 yards.
00:24:10
Like that's just, that's like the only possible option if you
00:24:15
are desperate for a tight end, right?
00:24:16
Yeah. But it's really nobody else that
00:24:19
I think that's going to get more than six or eight points.
00:24:23
Yeah, rocking a. Third string.
00:24:25
Quarterback is never a recipe to success in high ceilings for
00:24:29
championship weeks. No, I will not that I don't
00:24:32
believe in Chris Oladukan, but I don't believe in Chris Oladukan.
00:24:37
I will say this though, shout out to to Travis Kelsey, little
00:24:40
stat. It's fun for you guys.
00:24:43
Yeah, Kelsey. Kelsey had one catch for six
00:24:46
yards, correct? But that put him over 800
00:24:51
receiving yards for the season, which is now.
00:24:55
He's now topped 800 yards in 12 straight seasons, which is tied
00:24:59
with one other person for the most in NFL history.
00:25:01
You guys know who that is? Pro it.
00:25:03
Mr. Jerry Rice. Club of two Jerry Rice and
00:25:07
Travis Kelsey the only guys who have had twelve seasons in a row
00:25:12
of over 800 straight yards. So if Travis that.
00:25:15
Many years too. That's.
00:25:16
Right, yeah, if Travis does come back, I would have thought I
00:25:19
would have had Tim Brown in there as a potential, but
00:25:22
evidently he didn't have a he had a down year there.
00:25:23
But I if Kelsey does choose to come back, he could set a record
00:25:29
by himself there if he. That'd be kind of cool, but
00:25:33
we'll have to see how that goes as far as the rest.
00:25:35
What about the Broncos? Is there anybody else?
00:25:38
Yeah, yeah. So this.
00:25:39
Week like Harvey, Bo, Nicks, Sutton.
00:25:41
Who do we like there? There are technically two teams
00:25:44
playing so we should follow both of them.
00:25:50
I think Sutton may have a a good game.
00:25:54
Our secondary looked a little suspect last week against a not
00:25:58
great Tennessee team. What do you mean chimeray
00:26:01
Chimeray DK Does it strike fear to your heart?
00:26:03
It's. Pretty much exactly.
00:26:06
It's pretty good last week. Well, I got a lot of guys that
00:26:09
looked pretty good last week. Right.
00:26:12
I I don't know, I I'd have a tough time starting Harvey.
00:26:16
I think he's Rundy has been pretty good all year and.
00:26:20
It's at Arrowhead, even though it's at Arrowhead.
00:26:22
Diminished Arrowhead, Yeah. Yeah, I and, and, and we've
00:26:27
talked about this before, the the predicted point total from
00:26:29
Vegas is 36 1/2. Probably not going to be a lot
00:26:33
of scoring on either side, but I mean it might be a 24 to 9 game
00:26:39
or something crazy like that, but probably not in our favor.
00:26:43
No. So anyway, I don't see a lot of
00:26:46
scoring. You could squeak out a touchdown
00:26:48
with RJ Harvey, but it's more likely going to be a couple of
00:26:52
touchdown passes or a bow. Knicks, you know, 4 yard
00:26:56
scramble or something for a touchdown.
00:26:58
Yeah, as I look at Denver, we will get to this when we talk
00:27:03
about playoffs, probably next week or maybe the week after we
00:27:06
meet our actual playoff previews.
00:27:09
This is not a scary team, Denver.
00:27:12
I mean, their defense is pretty good, really good, but man, it's
00:27:17
hard to win a Game 3. Nothing.
00:27:19
And their offense is so slow, so often in so many games.
00:27:24
I don't know, look. At this last.
00:27:25
Week, yeah, absolutely. And Bo Nicks, we talked about
00:27:31
this beginning of the season 2 when he was actually having some
00:27:33
good weeks, but he usually had good quarters, not full games.
00:27:37
And he's not running that much and he's certainly not putting
00:27:41
up too many stats, too many touchdowns.
00:27:45
I don't know. It's hard for me to if I don't
00:27:47
know if you got here with Bo Nicks, if you're still out there
00:27:49
playing, but I don't know if I would trust him this week
00:27:52
either. Yeah, he only ran for 11 yards
00:27:55
against the Jaguars and they they probably needed him to run
00:28:00
more in that game. I I that gave us at home.
00:28:04
I, I know that I am a Denver haters.
00:28:06
So go ahead and put that up, put the asterisk by this opinion.
00:28:10
But if they hold on to the one seed, I think they could be the
00:28:15
least scary one seed in the history of the NFL playoffs.
00:28:18
Like I I I really they they seem like a very.
00:28:23
Representative, I feel. Very.
00:28:25
Confident in that statement. Me too, I'm I'm probably wrong
00:28:29
but I think I saw the stat this last week that they have come
00:28:32
from behind 11 times. Yes, I think that's right.
00:28:36
Win they have. Yeah, so they've.
00:28:39
Been losing they're good for their start that.
00:28:42
Catches up, yeah, they have a stellar defence and they start
00:28:46
slow is what I read out of that. That's exactly right, Brew.
00:28:49
They are always behind the fourth quarter.
00:28:51
If you look at their results, they beat the Raiders by a
00:28:56
touchdown. They beat the Commanders by one
00:28:58
in overtime. They beat the Chiefs, who are
00:29:02
obviously not a good team, by three.
00:29:05
They beat the Raiders again by three.
00:29:09
They beat the Texans by three. They beat the Giants by one.
00:29:14
They beat The Jets by two. Yeah.
00:29:17
These are not good teams, no. And I think what a loss that
00:29:21
really hurt them. And I don't know, I'm I don't
00:29:24
I'm not a Denver fan, but JK, Dobbins going down really hurt.
00:29:29
Agree. He was really good at pass
00:29:30
blocking. He was really just a solid
00:29:32
professional running back. He got you big game when you
00:29:35
need them, first downs when he needed them.
00:29:37
They've missed that. They have.
00:29:39
Really missed that. And RJ Harvey's not that I mean
00:29:44
he's a rookie and he's young back, but he's he's not the
00:29:46
same. I don't think he's even close.
00:29:48
I like JK Dobbins way better than that offense than RJ
00:29:51
Harvey. I I think that is the death
00:29:53
knell for them too. Dex.
00:29:54
I think people underestimate what he was doing for that team.
00:29:57
Yeah, I think they could have made a pretty good run with him.
00:30:01
I do too, but they're a. Better team with JK Dobbins.
00:30:04
Yeah, I don't think they were a Super Bowl contenders still, but
00:30:06
I I think they they could have won some playoff games with him.
00:30:08
I would not at all be surprised if this was a one playoff.
00:30:11
One and done man. If they get the one seed, that's
00:30:14
the only week they'll they'll get through.
00:30:16
Yeah, let's, let's keep going because I want to get to the
00:30:19
well, I don't know if we're talking about it this week or
00:30:21
next week, but because Denver's the one seed and we don't really
00:30:26
like them, you know who is going to step up?
00:30:28
Because we talked about the Patriots too, that are, Oh yeah,
00:30:31
the other potential one seed that are have a soft schedule
00:30:35
and yadda, yadda. That's true, right?
00:30:38
Saturday. 'S games pretty quick.
00:30:40
There's not a lot of fantasy value on there.
00:30:42
So Houston's got Nico Collins against the Chargers.
00:30:45
Chargers have literally nobody I'd really feel comfortable.
00:30:49
Ladd Mcconkey's probably it. Maybe.
00:30:51
Yeah, I. Don't feel great at going
00:30:53
against Houston's defense? So do.
00:30:55
You. Start either one of those guys
00:30:57
this week. I I'd probably start Nico and
00:31:00
that's about it. Are you guys on the same page or
00:31:02
is there someone else you would do?
00:31:03
As as a guy who just went out with Nico Collins, the Nico has
00:31:10
has had a string of just average, you know, like.
00:31:15
If you have Nico or Lad, who would you start?
00:31:18
Oh God, I probably would start Nico in that case.
00:31:20
Yeah, against that particular. Yeah, those two.
00:31:27
I'm there, I mean. You're probably back to your
00:31:30
upside, Pruitt. Your upside argument is like
00:31:34
Nico does have the potential to have two touchdown game.
00:31:38
I don't know that. I don't know that lad has that
00:31:41
potential, no. He.
00:31:42
Has the potential to have an 8 catch game.
00:31:45
Yeah, that's about it. Right, that's true.
00:31:47
Baltimore at Green Bay, so we've got no Lamar probably, but maybe
00:31:52
and that's a killer Derrick Henry.
00:31:56
Zay flowers I like, but depends. Actually, I don't know if it
00:32:00
does depend. I think even if it's Tyler
00:32:01
Huntley, I still like Zay flowers in that one against
00:32:03
Green Bay. Green Bay.
00:32:05
I love Jacobs because that dude played through this brokenness
00:32:08
and still kind of I just that guy's he's tough man.
00:32:11
Josh Jacobs is tough cat out there.
00:32:14
But Josh Jacobs, he's questionable going into this
00:32:16
week. Again, he's questionable.
00:32:18
Last week it was hard. So he 12 for 36, but he didn't
00:32:23
practice all week. And then he goes against the
00:32:25
Bears and they didn't really obviously didn't use him as much
00:32:29
as what he normally would. He didn't get in the end zone.
00:32:32
That's a killer. He only had two catches, which
00:32:34
is kind of par for the course. So Jacobs is one that makes me
00:32:38
nervous. Baltimore's defense has been
00:32:41
better, but I'm it's hard for me to call them good yet.
00:32:46
Are you if he plays normal and he's a little more healthy this
00:32:48
week, I like Josh Jacobs. Are you guys on the same page or
00:32:52
are you kind of scrapping both these guys because Green Bay's
00:32:54
Rushdie could make King Henry not that good either, especially
00:32:57
for going Huntley. I mean, then it's just going to
00:33:01
be, I would guess a lower scoring game than normal, but I
00:33:06
don't know that injury. Was smart at Green Bay's Atlanta
00:33:11
that Lambeau and it's a must win game for both.
00:33:16
But if I mean, the Ravens realistically are out of the
00:33:21
playoffs, but they are they they have to win.
00:33:24
And so I don't know how they'll respond to that.
00:33:25
I'll tell you they look dysfunctional to me right now in
00:33:29
a lot of ways, like they just collapse.
00:33:32
It seems like there's some disarray in the locker room
00:33:35
between Henry the coach. I think a lot of the players are
00:33:39
upset. I I like Green Bay better
00:33:42
because it's a must win for them as well, but it's at home.
00:33:45
Yep. I, I like the fortitude and the
00:33:48
resolution of that team more. And they just came off of a
00:33:51
rough loss to the bears. That was a that's a game that
00:33:55
they just gave away with that onsite kick.
00:33:57
How do you not feel the onsite kick?
00:33:59
And then, well, they gave a point, you know, in.
00:34:02
The last like couple minutes. Yeah, and that game was, the
00:34:05
game was salted away and they gave it up.
00:34:09
So I think they're going to come out pissed.
00:34:12
And I, I, I like them in that game, so I don't have any fear.
00:34:16
Josh Jacobs. I actually would start Josh
00:34:17
Jacobs in this game, I think. Yeah, he's, he's almost
00:34:21
guaranteed A touchdown every game he plays.
00:34:24
They just, I mean, short yardage down by the goal line, They are.
00:34:29
They just feed him over and over.
00:34:31
Yeah, I see him at least scoring a touchdown.
00:34:34
Especially if he's healthier this week, like check out the
00:34:37
the practice schedule this week and look at the reports.
00:34:40
Yeah, but if he's playing and last week, like I said, he
00:34:42
didn't play Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and he had a limited
00:34:45
practice Friday and then that was that was his practice week.
00:34:48
So Jacobs, he wasn't he wasn't right last week.
00:34:51
And that explains at 12 for 36 and A2 for 12.
00:34:54
But generally speak he's pretty good.
00:34:56
All right, let's go to Tampa, Miami.
00:34:58
So really, I think there's only probably 1 1/2 players of notes.
00:35:03
So you got Devon a chain against Tampa Mean yes, right, No doubt.
00:35:08
We only really need to talk about it.
00:35:10
Nobody else in the Dolphins. I think that's also safe to say
00:35:13
the the only issue that potentially impacts a chain is
00:35:17
Quinn yours. So I mean, not that he's much
00:35:21
worse than Tua, but certainly doesn't stretch the field, which
00:35:27
makes it even harder for a chain.
00:35:28
But on the flip side, it could lead to more dump offs.
00:35:32
And I know last week, so if you're looking at his stat
00:35:36
sheet, the three catches kind of hurt, right?
00:35:39
But he had 15 for 81. And that was against a very,
00:35:43
very, very, very porous Cincinnati defense.
00:35:47
Tampa's were middle of the pack and usually pretty good against
00:35:50
a run. And so that's what would give me
00:35:52
some pause about 18 having a really big game because again, I
00:35:55
think the same gig they're going to be behind unless Tampa, man,
00:35:59
maybe they've just totally collapsed these.
00:36:00
This team can't win either. They're like the Colts.
00:36:02
They are now on the outside looking in.
00:36:06
Carolina's atop the division. This is crazy town.
00:36:10
But for Tampa Bay, I think Bucky Irving's gonna have a good game.
00:36:13
I like him. No one else.
00:36:15
I'd really start the out of this game.
00:36:16
Is there anybody else you guys like?
00:36:18
I don't think it's a must start, but Evans is back.
00:36:21
He had a nice game this last week.
00:36:23
Yeah, he did. I think, I think that helps make
00:36:27
igluca better, but both of them are just like kind of low Tier 2
00:36:33
type receivers. I think for me that's probably
00:36:36
not a must start. I I think you're overthinking
00:36:39
the a chain thing though. You got to play him.
00:36:42
You have to play him right. They don't sit him, but.
00:36:46
Again, you're not looking for low floor, you're looking for
00:36:48
upside and he's got the potential to score a couple
00:36:51
touchdowns. If anybody's going to do it in
00:36:54
that whole game, he's going to do it so.
00:36:56
I really like him. I wish I had him.
00:37:00
I would I would like I mean, he's good on a bad team.
00:37:03
So I would yes, that's rare when you get a guy that's good on a
00:37:07
bad team, they're good. So I I the.
00:37:11
Last couple years, yeah. It absolutely was right.
00:37:13
It's very similar, I think, so He's the only guy that I would
00:37:17
start in that game. OK, let's go to Patriots Jets.
00:37:21
So Drake May absolutely. Is there anybody else we digs
00:37:26
Hunter Henry Trayvion if he comes back from his concussion,
00:37:31
Those are all maybes. Nobody on The Jets?
00:37:33
No, nobody so. No, Brady Cook.
00:37:36
You're not going to start Brady Cook.
00:37:38
Well, maybe for the New England defense, but that's about it.
00:37:43
Yeah. Bruce Hall.
00:37:44
No, I'm just telling you it wouldn't be in my lineup.
00:37:47
So I think really the only comfortable start out of all
00:37:50
that. Drake May, who's carried you to
00:37:51
this championship week, ride him again.
00:37:55
Stefan Diggs. It's not something you can
00:37:57
really count on, count on. He had a great week.
00:37:59
I don't know. He should be able to do it again
00:38:01
against The Jets and he seems like he's getting right at the
00:38:04
right time. So I guess maybe I wouldn't mind
00:38:07
having him in my flex spot, but I don't know.
00:38:10
He's one of my top 2. White House.
00:38:11
Where you guys at on that? I think he's a decent flex
00:38:14
start. OK.
00:38:16
Yeah, there's not much though I don't think because the outside
00:38:21
of Drake May, I would not feel good about anybody else in this
00:38:24
game. Yeah, yeah, I agree.
00:38:26
That's what I only won. Steelers, Browns, again, I'm not
00:38:29
starting anybody. None of those players will be on
00:38:31
my roster for this week next Arizona and Cincinnati.
00:38:35
So I I like Joe Burrow against the Cardinals.
00:38:37
I like Trey McBride and obviously it's Mark Jakes and
00:38:41
Brown. So that's the main players.
00:38:45
Is there anybody else you like in that game?
00:38:47
I mean Marvin. Harris, this was a yeah.
00:38:51
He's too unproven at this point, I think.
00:38:54
I went upside, I don't know prude's.
00:38:55
Got Michael. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:38:58
No, I like you're laughing fruit, kind of.
00:39:01
But listen, I started Michael Wilson in the last three weeks.
00:39:05
Yeah. And part of the reason I picked
00:39:07
up Michael Wilson was this. I looked and in in the final
00:39:11
week, they were playing Cincinnati and I was like, wow,
00:39:16
like this feels like I had Trey McBride.
00:39:19
I have him. I'm like, I, I think both those
00:39:21
guys could put up big points this week.
00:39:24
Yeah. And on the other side, I think
00:39:26
Cincinnati, I think Jamar Chase could put up big points this
00:39:29
week. I think Chase Brown could put up
00:39:30
big points this week too. Yep.
00:39:33
Absolutely. Bro could throw 3 or 4
00:39:35
touchdowns I mean. I would I would seriously
00:39:38
consider Burrow. I would seriously consider
00:39:40
Burrow depending on who I had. This is going to be a shootout.
00:39:43
I think it's all the guys you should play.
00:39:46
Dex has said it earlier in the season that you look for high
00:39:50
point total games, right? And this is the high highest of
00:39:53
the week, 53 1/2. Yeah.
00:39:55
So they're they're expecting, Vegas is expecting this to be a
00:39:58
not. A lot of punch. 35 to 20 games,
00:40:01
you know, so it's 35 to 21 type scores, so lots of touchdowns
00:40:06
for everybody. That's right.
00:40:08
It is all right. So I like everybody in that game
00:40:11
just beat on the record. So Saints, Titans next, please.
00:40:16
All right, Jacksonville Colts. Wow.
00:40:21
We talked about Jonathan Taylor. So I'm not going to go kick that
00:40:23
horse again and go back to the beginning.
00:40:25
You missed it. ETN.
00:40:28
What are we at on ETN? Do you feel like he is a
00:40:30
championship winning running back for your team in the final
00:40:34
week of the season? Because, boy, he's been a up and
00:40:37
down guy. Yeah, he's not there's, to
00:40:41
Pruitt's earlier point again, he's not.
00:40:43
There's not enough upside for him.
00:40:44
He's not going to score 3 touchdowns.
00:40:47
Except he did, two weeks ago against The Jets.
00:40:49
Don't bring facts into this. I know this, but what I do, I
00:40:53
make sure he can't score 3 touchdowns.
00:40:56
He's had four in the last. Two, actually.
00:40:58
He's had. Six in the last three weeks.
00:41:01
Wow, that OK? I'm shocked by that.
00:41:05
I got to, I got to reconsider. I'm playing old tape in my head
00:41:08
because I would have said no for sure.
00:41:11
But that's, that's a crazy trend right there.
00:41:14
If he's got 6 touchdowns in three weeks.
00:41:16
He's touchdown in six of seven games, and of those six games,
00:41:20
he scored multiple touchdowns 1-2 three times.
00:41:25
Colts defense obviously showed that they're not going to put up
00:41:27
any resistance right now. So yeah, maybe I do.
00:41:31
Maybe. I consider him, especially as a
00:41:33
flex. I think he's in.
00:41:35
I got him in and CMC just ran all over the Colts.
00:41:38
So and that's a guy who hasn't been able to get over 3 yards of
00:41:41
carry this season. And the Jacksonville's trucking
00:41:45
people, man, do you like to get these wide receivers on?
00:41:49
Either side of the ball. Not enough to start.
00:41:54
If you if you have to start one of these guys, you're in a bad
00:41:56
spot. So Downs No.
00:42:01
Not doing it. I.
00:42:03
Think it's. It's similar to like green.
00:42:04
Bay, there's just they spread the ball around too much.
00:42:07
There's no for 40 yards. Exactly.
00:42:09
Alec Pierce. Was the the game changing guy
00:42:12
last night? I mean what?
00:42:14
No, you're not starting about Jacksonville.
00:42:16
You like Brian Thomas, Junior? Mr. Disappointment for me this
00:42:19
year? No, he's he's dead.
00:42:22
You're already done. You're not even in the
00:42:23
championship. You don't have Brian Thomas
00:42:24
junior if you're listening to this right now for a starting
00:42:26
decision. So we'll just move on.
00:42:28
There's no one else you would start.
00:42:29
It's Jonathan Taylor, ETN and frankly, Trevor Lawrence has
00:42:34
been hot. I think he has.
00:42:36
I mean, I don't even know like 12 touchdowns or something
00:42:38
stupid the last couple weeks. It is a bunch.
00:42:42
And Trevor Lawrence is? Someone he could have
00:42:45
potentially be on the waiver still, but listen to this last
00:42:48
five games passing 3 touchdowns 2253 and he's ran in two other
00:42:56
ones. So this is somebody that is not
00:42:59
even getting mentioned in MVP consideration and they might be
00:43:03
the one seed in the AFC. Trevor Lawrence is needs to get
00:43:07
a little more love, but it's Drake may all day.
00:43:09
Don't get me wrong for AFCMVP kind of guy, but Trevor Lawrence
00:43:14
has not been as bad as you think because he's been right.
00:43:17
They're rolling lately. I still I still.
00:43:20
I know I. Do it, but I'm still like
00:43:22
totally undervaluing Jacksonville.
00:43:24
I just can't me too fathom that they're good this year.
00:43:27
Me too, just keep they keep winning and and Trevor Lawrence
00:43:31
is is the reason why. I mean, he's playing way better
00:43:36
than he has the last four or five years.
00:43:38
And I just I agree always, always have him pictured as a
00:43:42
year three type quarterback and he's totally out outplayed that
00:43:46
the last four or five weeks. He's had a really good year.
00:43:48
You're right. Yep.
00:43:49
Seven out of eight wins and. He's been really, really good
00:43:53
the last chunk. All right, So that's kind of
00:43:55
where we're at there. Get no one else in the Colts.
00:43:58
Even so, Tyler Warren, I'll throw this out because he is one
00:44:00
of the guys we had in our top four tight ends.
00:44:03
Do you like Tyler Warren against the Jags even though he didn't
00:44:06
have the best game last night? But I don't like him.
00:44:10
I don't know if I like him yet. I think I can find other.
00:44:12
Options. I don't like him because I'm
00:44:15
afraid. It doesn't seem like Rivers is
00:44:18
like gelling with him, and it won't be much better.
00:44:24
No. Yeah, I don't like him.
00:44:26
He scares. Me too much.
00:44:28
I like, I like Tyler. Warren against the Jags more
00:44:31
than I like Kelsey against Denver.
00:44:33
Agree. I agree with that if you give.
00:44:36
Me a soapie's choice like that. All right.
00:44:39
I mean, I agree though. If I mean.
00:44:44
Again, it all comes down to who you got available to you.
00:44:49
And he might be available and you might be stuck starting a
00:44:53
tight end that you'd rather not have.
00:44:55
But right, you could do. You could do worse, that's true
00:44:59
all. Right, let's go to.
00:45:00
Seattle at Carolina. So this one you have arguably
00:45:04
the offensive player of the year, Jackson Smith and Jigba
00:45:07
and I think that's a no brain no one else on Seattle, even
00:45:11
Darnold, no one else. So I know we love Darnold on
00:45:16
this show. He's kind of our favorite guy.
00:45:19
He is has a shirt, has his. Jersey.
00:45:22
Has his poster has his rookie card so but even him not going
00:45:26
to start him. On.
00:45:27
Carolina Tedro McMillan has been playing well, but some of these
00:45:32
games is 1 catch for 40 and a touchdown.
00:45:36
AJ Barner is also someone we can bring up.
00:45:42
You can do worse. If you need a tight end and
00:45:43
we're talking about some tight end matchups we don't like, AJ
00:45:47
Barner could be better than those two.
00:45:49
So Tyler Warren and Travis Kelsey, you've been riding.
00:45:53
You know what AJ Barner could be a nice fit for this week?
00:45:56
Carolina, though, I don't know if I really want to start
00:46:01
anybody. I know they're doing well and
00:46:02
they're leading their division now, but does anybody like give
00:46:06
you like confidence going against Seattle's defense?
00:46:11
Not me, no, that's a. Super tough matchup.
00:46:15
I like I like Carolina's offense a lot better than the Chiefs
00:46:18
against Denver. Yeah, right.
00:46:20
But but Carolina against. Seattle.
00:46:22
Is going to be a tough matchup. That's another I mean, 42 is not
00:46:26
horrible. 42 1/2 is the predicted point total Yeah.
00:46:30
So I mean, not terrible, but props.
00:46:35
To Rico Dowdle for hitting. 1000.
00:46:36
Yards, but he's dead in the water now.
00:46:39
Yeah, and Tuba Hubbard's not any better.
00:46:44
There's no touchdowns to be had there.
00:46:45
I no, I don't. I don't like anybody on that
00:46:48
team right now. Stay away.
00:46:50
Game for me except for JSN. Yeah, if you go for a
00:46:54
championship and a trophy, that's it.
00:46:57
Yeah. All right.
00:46:57
Giants, Raiders. I think there's probably only
00:46:59
one player out of those two teams as well.
00:47:03
And if you guys aren't on the same page as Brock Bowers, who
00:47:05
are you thinking about? Is there anyone else that you?
00:47:09
I was, I was hoping. You were going to say that?
00:47:10
Because I was. Couldn't think of anybody else I
00:47:13
was going to say. Not so fast, my friend.
00:47:17
Because. I am concerned.
00:47:19
Well, I wanted I wanted to bring up Ashton Gente, who just put up
00:47:22
120 yards against Houston's defense.
00:47:26
So did they figure something out there?
00:47:29
I don't know. But just putting that out there.
00:47:32
I'm not saying I would start him, but it, you know, is the
00:47:36
Raiders out there still 5 steaming?
00:47:38
Piles of brown manure in a jersey that says Raiders.
00:47:43
Here's that go. Here's the other.
00:47:45
Thing I would worry about. It is the other thing I worry
00:47:49
about. Is Brock.
00:47:49
Bowers. I mean, 6 for 28, five for 33.
00:47:55
His last two games he did have a touchdown in there.
00:48:00
That's kind of you. That's kind of gross.
00:48:03
I don't know. I don't know what I've three of
00:48:05
the last four games, though. All you want is your.
00:48:07
Tight end score for you. Yeah, that's true.
00:48:10
I I'm just saying. Like in a thin in a thin tight
00:48:14
end world, you probably have to start him, but this just hasn't
00:48:17
been a good year for trading in the right.
00:48:18
Way I know. But Travis Kelce is still two or
00:48:21
three. Fantasy tight end, we don't even
00:48:23
want to look at it. Yeah.
00:48:25
So that's. What I'm saying, so this is such
00:48:27
a thin position of championship week.
00:48:29
You have Rock Bowers and yeah, you're right.
00:48:31
Really great. You're right.
00:48:34
That's good. You're right.
00:48:36
All right. That's fair.
00:48:37
A J. AJ Barner.
00:48:38
Or Travis Kelsey this week, AJ Barner.
00:48:41
Oh God, I. Probably would start.
00:48:43
AJ Barner. That's that feels like that's
00:48:45
blasphemy, but it is. But it's also.
00:48:48
Not a little bit, Duke. He's getting more.
00:48:50
He's getting more looks. And he's got someone competent
00:48:53
throwing the ball. So I yeah, yeah, I'm not
00:48:56
messing. I think we're.
00:48:57
I think we're a. Few games left Phillies girls.
00:49:00
There are a lot of players in this particular.
00:49:02
One, we got Saquon and James Cook running backs.
00:49:05
We got A.J. Brown, who's turned it around
00:49:07
and looks very passable, and Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and
00:49:12
frankly, Dallas got hurt from the tight end position, too.
00:49:15
I like all those guys. I feel great with any of them.
00:49:18
If they're your starters, they're who got you here.
00:49:20
So ride them all, man. I mean, Josh Allen may have just
00:49:23
gotten you chopped last week, especially if you coupled him
00:49:26
with Trey McBride. So you had your two in game
00:49:28
guys, right? Sealed your season right there.
00:49:30
So you're not in this game anymore if you had both those
00:49:32
guys. But regardless, I think if you
00:49:35
got through with all those, those are your starters, Those
00:49:37
are your horses. I don't really have any concerns
00:49:39
on any of them. Do you guys feel differently?
00:49:43
Not the ones you mentioned. What?
00:49:44
About Devante Smith or do you start like a Kincaid or Knox?
00:49:50
Those guys have been getting a ton of targets the last few
00:49:52
weeks with Buffalo they have. Not super consistent.
00:49:56
All year long. But they've been really good
00:49:58
lately. Yeah, we have highlighted a
00:50:00
bunch of bad tight. Ends.
00:50:01
So if you are starting one of those, sure.
00:50:04
I think one of those guys you want to take a look at because
00:50:08
they are better than who you have and if you're like well, I
00:50:10
can pick up AJ Barner. I mean, maybe you do want Knox
00:50:14
or Kincaid. Frankly, I'd probably still not
00:50:16
get paid because I think he's got more talent, but I feel like
00:50:20
there's a reason for the last few scoring touchdowns.
00:50:23
Like. Yeah.
00:50:24
Yeah, Knox had two touchdowns. Last week against New England?
00:50:27
Yep. And I think neither.
00:50:30
Before maybe? The problem is is I'm.
00:50:33
Looking at their numbers, are you going to hit us with facts
00:50:36
against Chisholm? Yeah, they're just they're not
00:50:39
getting. Targets.
00:50:40
So it's like it's definitely like the Max they're getting is
00:50:45
like 4 a week, which is, which is kind of tough to, I mean
00:50:49
they're turning that into touchdown sometime, but I don't
00:50:51
think there's enough upside there.
00:50:53
What about Saquon? I like him.
00:50:56
I think he's getting into. That point of the season, again,
00:50:59
if you have them and you've gotten to this point, you
00:51:01
haven't benched them all season, so you're going to keep riding.
00:51:05
Riding him through. And he got over 1000 yards,
00:51:07
which is so funny to say because last year he did it in like week
00:51:10
8. He got out of his 2nd 17.
00:51:13
I know I got 1000. Yards.
00:51:15
He's the guy. He's the.
00:51:17
Guy that. He can bust out a 35 yard runner
00:51:21
on any given play. That's exactly right.
00:51:23
And he is. Coming off his second best week.
00:51:25
Of the year. So yeah, that's, I don't know if
00:51:28
that's a good thing, but I I feel just fine.
00:51:30
And what I think will be it has a low 43 point over under for
00:51:34
Vegas. But I think I might change my
00:51:37
damn pick. I think he's going to go over
00:51:38
that. I think he's going to be over 43
00:51:40
points. So I think there's going to be
00:51:42
scoring in this game to be had and I think he's going to be the
00:51:44
main players. So that's that's where I feel on
00:51:47
that. Chicago, San Fran for Sunday
00:51:49
night. Again, I think we've talked
00:51:52
multiple weeks in a row the Bears don't have anybody we
00:51:55
really like from a fantasy standpoint that I mean, really
00:52:00
none. I mean, DeAndre Swift too
00:52:03
inconsistent. Yeah, I know that's.
00:52:05
What I'm saying is like that'd be the.
00:52:06
Only one, I don't think he got you the championship week.
00:52:10
And if so, again, nice call. We want to have you on as a
00:52:13
guest. Like I managed to get through
00:52:15
with DeAndre Swift. I'll tell you right now.
00:52:19
I feel like this is a massive setup for Chicago to have a turd
00:52:25
of a game like this feels like like they're coming off of a
00:52:29
high. They think they're all that.
00:52:30
They're going to go out to San Francisco, two time zones away.
00:52:34
San Francisco is a good football team.
00:52:37
Yeah, I really like. This is a game we don't pick
00:52:41
because it's a Sunday night game, but this is a, a game I
00:52:45
really like. San Francisco -3 here I, I feel
00:52:48
like the inexperience of the Young Bears is going to haunt
00:52:52
them here. And I, I therefore I don't like
00:52:54
anybody on that team. I like Kittle and I like CMC.
00:52:58
Yep. And Purdy, frankly.
00:52:59
I think pretty's have a good game.
00:53:00
Yeah, Purdy's had a jeez, Pretty A5.
00:53:03
Touchdown game last week. He's been absolutely trucking.
00:53:06
Since he's got back the last few weeks and Brock Purdy is
00:53:09
probably a reason some of you guys, especially in the two
00:53:11
quarterback leagues when you got him back or if you picked him up
00:53:14
off waivers. I mean he's at 8 touchdowns the
00:53:17
last two weeks and two 95295. He's running a little bit.
00:53:22
Brock Purdy's been hot. So I think that is someone that
00:53:27
you get 5 straight games, all wins after coming back from
00:53:31
injury. Brock Purdy can take you to the
00:53:33
promised land potentially. So I like him too.
00:53:37
All right, last game, Rams, Falcons, who do we like other
00:53:41
than the obvious like we got the Bijan, we got Matt Stafford.
00:53:46
Let's go, baby. Do you believe in Kyle Pitts to
00:53:49
bring you home the. Championship.
00:53:50
On the final game, the final seconds, the final snap.
00:53:54
Is Kyle Pitts your guy in the flex or tight end spot to win
00:53:58
your trophy? Pruitt Oh my gosh, that's
00:54:01
setting up to be tight end. You're Mr. Tight End Guy we.
00:54:05
Just talked about all the crappy tight end.
00:54:07
Matchups this week, but man, he could bring it home for you.
00:54:13
Bring. It home.
00:54:15
I don't hate him this. Week.
00:54:17
I know I don't hate him this week.
00:54:19
That's a good way of saying. It chose I, I really don't.
00:54:21
I mean, they're going to be playing from behind.
00:54:24
They're going to be throwing the ball like, who are they going to
00:54:27
throw to? An injured Drake London or Kyle
00:54:30
Pitts? And you know, you know where
00:54:32
Kirk likes to go? He'll get his Kirk likes.
00:54:36
To get Kirk likes to tied in. Yep, which was my whole strategy
00:54:41
last. Year and it did not work.
00:54:42
Chisholm No, I know like his tight end because Kyle Pitts
00:54:45
decided to suck last year. He was horrible.
00:54:47
Devante Adams Devante Adams is a.
00:54:49
Touchdown maker, but he's questionable so you got to
00:54:51
really pay attention to that yeah injury because he's scored
00:54:56
a crap load of touchdowns this year yeah just a time but if
00:55:00
he's. Going to play and he's semi
00:55:02
healthy I. Love him.
00:55:04
Yeah, in Stafford, obviously. Karen Williams.
00:55:06
Puka Nakua, those are all the the no doubters.
00:55:09
You're you're, you're starting all those guys.
00:55:12
Hopefully everyone's paying attention but the last four
00:55:14
weeks. Kyle Pitts has 9 targets, 12
00:55:18
targets and targets 8 targets. Wow, yeah.
00:55:24
And that has turned into. 7 catches, 11 catches, 6 catches,
00:55:28
7 catches. Dang, the passing game has gone
00:55:31
through Kyle. Man.
00:55:33
It would be hard to set him down this week.
00:55:36
I agree with all the other. Rappy type and pass ups we've.
00:55:40
Already talked about yeah, I like it.
00:55:41
Yeah, it's awesome. So that's going to.
00:55:43
Be our last island game too so. We'll get our props up, so check
00:55:45
our socials for that. Well, let's kick it back over to
00:55:47
Chiz now to go through our gambling picks.
00:55:50
Yeah, let's go through the picks.
00:55:52
Let's go through the picks. So last week, what did we do for
00:55:56
you? Well, you know, we were having a
00:55:57
little bit of a slow little slowness lately, but what
00:56:01
happened? Yeah, we came.
00:56:02
We came in with a three for three.
00:56:03
Let me get my show all the all the.
00:56:06
Doubters all the. Doubters that were like, the
00:56:08
shrewdness has lost it. The shrewdness has lost their
00:56:11
golden touch. I'm abandoning the shrewdness
00:56:14
picks. Well, you just lost a lot of
00:56:16
money. You could be on a yacht right
00:56:17
now listening to this, but instead you're at home because
00:56:20
you doubted us. So don't do it again, my
00:56:21
friends. Don't do it again.
00:56:23
Last week we gave you Kansas City, Tennessee, under 37. 1/2
00:56:27
from Peru. Cha Ching decks -2 1/2 at the
00:56:30
Giants. Cha Ching and I gave you
00:56:33
Cleveland plus 10 at Buffalo. Cha Ching 3 for three.
00:56:38
Don't doubt we're on a heater to end the season.
00:56:41
We're going to give you cheers. I want to interrupt real quick
00:56:44
even. If you accidentally did Pruitt's
00:56:46
other pick before we found out that was still in two, so that
00:56:50
it two, we got all four picks really. 4 for four.
00:56:53
Yeah, it was the Cincinnati. Over right, Cincinnati and.
00:56:57
Miami over 50 1/2 and they. Scored right and then 60
00:57:00
something they scored like 9095 points or.
00:57:03
Something it was ridiculous or it was 66, I think 45 or. 21, I
00:57:07
think, yeah, it's crazy. So we're going to give you 6.
00:57:10
Picks this week we're going to give you 3 for Thursday,
00:57:13
Saturday games, We're going to give you 3 for the Sunday games.
00:57:16
So you're going to make a lot of money to pay for all those
00:57:18
Christmas gifts that you just bought.
00:57:20
So let's start out with Peru on our Thursday, Saturday slate.
00:57:25
Peru Who do you like this week? We talked about the game.
00:57:29
Earlier, Green Bay and Baltimore, kind of a definitely
00:57:34
a must win for Baltimore to have any sort of playoff hopes.
00:57:38
And then Green Bay needs every win they can get to make sure
00:57:42
they, you know, get as high of a seat as they can.
00:57:47
I like Green Bay at home. I think they're super tough out
00:57:50
in Lambeau. It's not supposed to be super
00:57:53
cold, which would give them an even bigger advantage.
00:57:56
But I still like them to beat Baltimore by at least 2 1/2.
00:58:01
So I'm going green Green Bay at home -2 1/2 Dex when we look
00:58:08
Thursday, Saturday. What catches your eye?
00:58:12
I got to go against one of my teams.
00:58:14
So when I heard Max Brosmer starting from Minnesota, I go to
00:58:19
the other team and pick the over.
00:58:21
So that's Detroit on a 7 1/2 to cover easily, because that
00:58:26
would. Mean.
00:58:27
Detroit just needs to score eight points in this game to
00:58:30
cover because Minnesota is going to be punting regularly.
00:58:35
We've got no George Mason. We got a broken Aaron Jones.
00:58:38
We got a defunct Jefferson because we have Max Brosmer
00:58:42
thrown behind a broken line. Yeah.
00:58:45
So if Minnesota gets to double digits in points, I'll be
00:58:51
amazed. Detroit is playing for their
00:58:53
life, their literal playoff life right now.
00:58:57
And they lost to Minnesota earlier at Detroit.
00:58:59
They are going to not hold back. I think they're going to go 4th
00:59:02
down all the way down the field and get it.
00:59:06
And I think it's just not going to be good for us, for us being
00:59:10
Minnesota. So -7 1/2 Detroit, take that to
00:59:13
the bank. You can almost ladder that thing
00:59:16
up to 14 and feel pretty good. I agree.
00:59:18
The hook doesn't even scare me in that game.
00:59:20
At all. So I like it scare people away
00:59:24
because Vegas like, oh, we can't.
00:59:26
Make it too lopsided or the donors, Right, Right.
00:59:29
Yeah. I don't know how that game.
00:59:31
'S only. 7 1/2 and the me either I feel like the Chiefs game's 13
00:59:35
1/2. Yeah.
00:59:37
Well, I think it's just. Detroit's looked a little.
00:59:40
Weird lately. So maybe that's what it is.
00:59:42
But the Bosmer factory, I agree that really changes things a lot
00:59:46
like the I mean, the total is still 43 1/2 so.
00:59:49
They're Vegas is thinking it's more like a 30 to 2421. 2417,
00:59:57
yes, yeah, 2417 It's ugly. I don't know how they'll get
01:00:03
there. All right, Jazz, let's go to
01:00:04
your pick. What's what are we going to
01:00:06
finish off our first slate with? So one of the things I like as
01:00:10
you guys. Know is interdivisional unders.
01:00:12
The other thing I like is disinterested team unders.
01:00:16
We have two teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs,
01:00:19
nothing to play for. They've booked their Cancun
01:00:21
trips. They're trying to not get hurt,
01:00:23
which means a lot of punting. So I don't think there's going
01:00:27
to be a lot of effort in this game neither.
01:00:31
I mean, the Dallas, Dallas does have potential to blow it open
01:00:34
and they could, but they don't have a lot of heart on this
01:00:37
Dallas team. So I don't see them playing for
01:00:39
pride. So I think I think that 50 1/2
01:00:43
seems like a lot of points and I love that under I don't think
01:00:47
Washington's going to score. I think Washington, Washington
01:00:51
and Minnesota would be a good match up this week.
01:00:53
I think that would be a very close game.
01:00:56
But I don't think Marcus Mariota 9 to 6 and, and I, I don't see
01:01:04
50 at half points. I, I think Dallas gets up big
01:01:07
and then sits on it. I see something like, you know,
01:01:10
35 to six games, something like that.
01:01:12
Like it's not going to be not going to be 50.
01:01:15
So I love that under. So those are our three picks for
01:01:17
Thursday, Saturday games. Green Bay -2 1/2 versus
01:01:20
Baltimore, Detroit -7 1/2 at Minnesota and the Dallas,
01:01:24
Washington under at Washington under 50 1/2.
01:01:28
By the way, before we go into our Sunday picks, we have hit
01:01:30
53% of the picks on the year, which will put you slightly in
01:01:34
the money. So none of us have been doing
01:01:37
any better than anyone else on the shrewdness.
01:01:39
We are no shrewd together in our you could be, you could be, you
01:01:43
could be very happy we. Need to know that each of us
01:01:45
individually has hit 53%. We've all hit 9 of 17 picks on
01:01:50
the year. So you could go with any or all
01:01:53
of us goons. OK, so Sunday, we have Sunday
01:01:57
games. Peru.
01:01:58
What do you like on the Sunday slate?
01:02:01
I was pleased to find out that. The last two weeks, Tyler Shuck,
01:02:07
who we've given such a hard time all year, Yeah, threw for. 272
01:02:13
and a. Touchdown and last week, 3 O
01:02:15
three O 8 and a touchdown. Look at this guy.
01:02:17
He's legitimate NFL quarterback. He's he's starting to learn his.
01:02:22
Role a little bit. I wouldn't hang my hat on, you
01:02:26
know, him. Lighten up everybody.
01:02:27
But they are going against the Tennessee team that's been
01:02:30
pretty weak all year. And even though they just beat
01:02:33
the Chiefs, the Chiefs were not the Chiefs, the JV team.
01:02:37
Shell of a shell of a team. So I actually like New Orleans
01:02:41
in this. Game.
01:02:42
I think they go into Tennessee and win by at least field goal.
01:02:47
I'm taking New Orleans -2 1/2 versus Tennessee.
01:02:52
The deal. I like it Decks.
01:02:54
What are you seeing here? So I'm going to the division
01:02:58
battle. So AFC Jacksonville versus the
01:03:02
Colts, that's a lot of points, 48 1/2.
01:03:06
So I'm going under in that game because it's either Philip
01:03:10
Rivers or Riley Leonard. I just don't see the Colts
01:03:14
scoring how many points. And Jacksonville I.
01:03:16
Just going to get up and if it's 3117, there we go.
01:03:21
That's a winner. I don't as 17's a lot.
01:03:23
I mean, Jonathan Taylor's going to have to have a super good
01:03:26
game for that to be that. And if Jacksonville doesn't get
01:03:29
to 31, great, now the under's even easier.
01:03:31
But even saying 3117's a winner, Winner chicken dinner, I feel
01:03:35
pretty good about that. I think it's gonna be low
01:03:36
scoring, like the defenses are gonna come show up and winner
01:03:41
needs the Colts have to win and Jacksonville's playing for a one
01:03:43
seed. So both teams are playing with
01:03:45
everything they got. So I like the under.
01:03:47
And as a defensive struggle, yeah, I like it too.
01:03:51
So why? Pick on Sunday I'm going to
01:03:53
break one of the rules in the Chisholm Bible, which is late
01:03:59
late game, late season interdivisional unders I'm a
01:04:03
huge fan of. When I saw this number, I just,
01:04:06
I couldn't take it. I can't understand it.
01:04:09
My brain can't process 33 1/2 as a total in the NFL, especially
01:04:15
when one of the teams is still playing for playoff position in
01:04:19
Pittsburgh. It's Pittsburgh, Cleveland.
01:04:23
I'm taking the over, which I think is the first over I've
01:04:25
taken in like 3 years. Maybe that's how I never do the
01:04:32
I never do the over. But like 33 1/2, dear God.
01:04:36
Like Cleveland has scored some lately.
01:04:38
They've actually put ups and they've actually the defense has
01:04:41
been a little porous lately. So yeah, like I think people are
01:04:44
playing a little bit of old tape here.
01:04:46
I do believe those inter division games where they become
01:04:49
familiar with one another tend to be lower scoring games.
01:04:51
But, and I know that Pittsburgh is without one of their key
01:04:56
receivers at DK Metcalf, but 33 1/2 points is way too stinking
01:05:00
low in the NFL. So I'm gonna go this game is
01:05:04
probably a 2114 game and that puts you over and that's money.
01:05:11
So over 33 1/2 and a not super cold Cleveland for Pittsburgh
01:05:16
Cleveland. So over 33 1/2, Pittsburgh,
01:05:19
Cleveland on Sunday, under 48 1/2 for Jacksonville, Colts and
01:05:24
New Orleans And Mr. Shosh, Yeah. -2 1/2.
01:05:32
Versus Tennessee, so. That's 6 picks.
01:05:35
You know, I just so you guys know, I bet these all
01:05:39
individually and then I bet them as a parlay.
01:05:41
I suggest you do that, bet them all, bet them as parlay and hey,
01:05:45
bet them as a six leg parlay because they're probably all
01:05:47
gonna hit. So, you know, maybe bet all six
01:05:50
of them a really big guy, big yacht, if you want to go for the
01:05:53
big yacht. So those are our gaming.
01:05:55
Picks 53% on the year. Follow the socials for those
01:06:00
prop picks, which by the way, prop picks were 54% on the year.
01:06:04
And our parlay hit rate is 18% for three leg parlays.
01:06:08
For those of you who know much about betting, a good parlay hit
01:06:11
rate for three leg parlays is somewhere around 13 percent,
01:06:13
12/13 and we're hitting 18. So really good money makers
01:06:17
there. And we just hit one last night,
01:06:19
San Francisco Indies, so check those out.
01:06:22
Social Saturday we'll do 2 island games, then Sunday night
01:06:25
game and Monday night game. As Dex said, Yep.
01:06:27
Before we move on, I wanna give. Shout outs what I.
01:06:30
Saw at the Division 2 championship where my beloved
01:06:33
Harding Bison fell This week, I saw an old friend, Reagan Price.
01:06:39
Reagan Price told me, hey, would you mind giving a shout out to
01:06:43
my son on the shrewdness? And I said I would.
01:06:46
So shout out to Dawson Price. We will give you a follow up on
01:06:51
Dawson this year. Dawson is in the Detroit Tigers
01:06:55
minor league system. He's a pitcher.
01:06:57
He would have played rookie ball last year.
01:07:00
He's probably going to start at low A this year.
01:07:03
So Dawson, we'll be watching you, we'll be tracking you.
01:07:07
Shout out from the shrewdness. Go go kill him out there.
01:07:10
We're excited to see your season this year.
01:07:13
We will be off. Next week I believe.
01:07:15
Is that correct? We may try to get a little short
01:07:18
one out there. We'll see, but we may be off
01:07:21
next week. But check the socials.
01:07:23
There's no fantasy playoffs. There's just going to be kind of
01:07:26
some fun. Real life potentials here, yeah,
01:07:28
even though a whole bunch got locked in already.
01:07:30
It might just be jockeying for positions down.
01:07:32
We'll see what happens to the last.
01:07:34
We're down to the last. Four spots, I think, Yeah,
01:07:37
teams, that's right. All right, all right, but follow
01:07:40
us on. Socials, we'll update you and
01:07:43
don't forget the website. We've got it LinkedIn all the
01:07:45
socials as well. Shrewdness dot beam dot LY.
01:07:48
Check it out. Thank you guys.
01:07:49
Merry Christmas. We truly, we love spending time
01:07:52
together. This has been great for us and
01:07:54
our friendship and getting to experience it together.
01:07:58
But we absolutely love the fact that you guys are enjoying it
01:08:01
too. And I appreciate every one of
01:08:03
you that listens and forwards. It really does mean a lot.
01:08:06
It lets us do it and it's fun. So thank you.
01:08:08
Appreciate it. Merry Christmas.
01:08:09
Happy holidays. Even the ribbing.
01:08:12
Yeah, even the ribbing. That's the best part.
01:08:15
We miss on a on a pick or. Whatever, come at us, we'll come
01:08:18
right back at. You.
01:08:22
Championships this. Weekend.
01:08:24
Bring home the belt. Bring home the crown, whatever
01:08:27
it is, in your particularly good luck.
01:08:29
Hopefully we've been able to help you out at least a little
01:08:31
bit. And as games go through, be sure
01:08:33
to get your lineups in on Christmas, man.
01:08:35
Don't sleep in too late on that because the games get rolling.
01:08:38
There's some important ones, so hopefully they start you off
01:08:41
well. But enjoy time with the family,
01:08:43
enjoy watching some football this weekend.
01:08:46
We'll be back in probably a couple weeks.
01:08:47
Might get a short one on next week like Chisholm said, but
01:08:50
just on your picks and your presents and everything else.
01:08:54
The most important thing Stay shrewd.
01:08:57
Stay shrewd.

