#fantasy #sportsbetting #guillotine #NFL
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What's up? Shrewd despairs in case you
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can't see through it tonight, because his whole family's
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streaming Amazon on Thanksgiving break and eating up.
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All Internet package. I don't need 99 A.
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Month. I've got Google Fiber but both
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kids have a device in each hand. I think so.
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Exactly. A family of four has 12 devices
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running right now. Probably so.
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Hey, happy Thanksgiving from the shrewdness.
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This is the best time of the year.
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My personal favorite holiday, Thanksgiving, where everybody
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gets together, eats food, watches football.
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There's you don't have to buy anything for somebody.
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You just get together, you hang out, you eat, you watch
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football, you enjoy each other. Hope you guys are with people
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you love this week and enjoying it.
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Maybe listen to the shrewdness on the way to Thanksgiving,
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traveling somewhere. We'd love to be in your car with
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you right now. Hopefully that's what's going
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on. So before we get started,
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because it's a fun football week, it's a blast.
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This is a fun for the week because if you like football,
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there's football every day. So you got Thursday, Friday
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games, you got college on Saturday, and then you got pro
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again on Sunday. So it's a great football
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weekend. I want to thank everybody for
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following us thus far liking subscribing.
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Please do that. Please forward to somebody who
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you think would enjoy it because we do a lot of this awesome
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fantasy content. But in the offseason we talk
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about all kinds of stuff and hopefully you'll enjoy that too.
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Talk about sports and all kinds of other things too.
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You can find that at the shrewdness dot beam dot LY, so
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check it out there. But that's all the plugin we're
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doing right now. What we're going to do is dive
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into the week that was for fantasy in NFL and talk about
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this smorgasbord of wonderful football that we have in front
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of us. So without further ado, let's
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talk recap. Toss it over to the one and only
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JDEX. What up?
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Thanks Chase. This last week was a ton of fun
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and as again, we had another really fun and entertaining
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Thursday night game that right off the bat got everybody like
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Roiler, like, Oh my God, what just happened?
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Buffalo just lost to Houston. What are you talking about?
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There's no way you saw that coming.
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But yeah, I think what we saw Thursday night is Houston
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Texans, man, they've got a defense and yeah, they had to
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hang on and yeah, they screwed my prop by letting Josh Allen
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get like 180 yards in the last 8 minutes of the game.
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That being said, I'm not upset about that at all because they
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still hung on and won. But we're seeing at least from a
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fantasy perspective in this game, Josh Allen is not carrying
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you week after week with 30 to 40 point games like he was last
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season. And on the same note, we'll get
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down to it later, but either is Lamar.
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So two of our stalwarts like our in game quarterbacks for
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fantasy, they are kind of killing you right now and.
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It's. Certainly not going to ever
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bench them. You just.
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Don't have that confidence level.
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It used to be a conference level of one O 1 out of 100.
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Like, of course I'm going to get 20 plus, but now you're like,
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you've gotten single digits. Those floors, those floors have
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dropped this year for both those guys.
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Yeah, and I don't know, I mean, Josh Allen, when he doesn't run
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for three touchdowns in the last 8 minutes of a game, he's been
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kind of human. And I think in this game, what
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we saw, the number one defense played really well.
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I mean, James Cook still had a great game.
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He played well for his fantasy owners.
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And on the flip side, we were just talking about this, CJ
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Stroud is coming back this week for Houston.
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Is that going to actually help? Because we're talking Davis
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Mills is actually pretty effective.
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I mean, everyone always loves the backup when you're winning.
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And I just, I don't know. So moving forward, no.
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Turnovers. Yeah, no turnovers.
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But for Josh Allen, do you do you really have any worry meter
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or is it just kind of like he's just not as consistent this
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year, but his big weeks are so big, he's going to carry you.
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Like where are you feeling with Josh?
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Allen your. Quarterback is for specifically
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for guillotine but for fantasy leagues in general the
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guillotine is 1. Where that bad we can get you
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chopped. What do you feel with Josh Allen
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now in guillotine leagues? Yeah, I I feel like if you've
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made it this far that you're probably fine because there's
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others on your team that can carry you.
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The problem is something like, I think Week 2 when Josh Allen was
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the 24th ranked quarterback, right?
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You you're counting on his early in the season because you may
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not have anybody else on your team.
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But if you've made it this far with him, he's dynamic enough.
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He can win you the week, right? So you kind of got to go for it
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at this point in the season. You can't give up on him for
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sure. Maybe it's less confidence what
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you've had in the past, but he's he's still you got to stick with
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your horse. You got you got to roll with
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them, but I think that the challenge is it's all on his
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legs If he doesn't get the rushing touchdowns, the passing
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is what's been inconsistent. It's and like it's the same
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story that we've had with them for a while.
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He doesn't have like a wide out. He doesn't have a wide out
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right. Like like they didn't get better
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and the the guy that they. Getting benched like healthy
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scratch two weeks in a row for Keon Coleman.
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I'm like, I don't know what the story is, but someone in the
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locker room does. I don't know anybody in that
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locker room. Yes, and that's the problem is
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I, I, I think we may have seen the last of Keon Coleman in
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Buffalo like the when you bench a guy twice as a healthy scratch
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in games that matter. I know, like I don't think he
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did. Something that bad I I think
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it's. Reports.
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No, he didn't come out. He didn't.
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I think it's AI think it's an attitude thing.
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And the problem is when you get a wide receiver who are known to
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be a little mercurial, if you will, and diva esque, and when
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they start getting crossways of the coach, like, yeah, that's
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all she wrote. Like it's like, what can you
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get? I would not at all be surprised
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if Keon is somewhere else. We don't see him anymore this
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this year, and he's somewhere else next year.
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It could be, I don't know. I'm not.
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Obviously you can't. He's on your roster right now.
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I don't know why, but Keon Coleman is unplayable because he
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might not. I don't know what he's doing,
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but he's not one of our end gamers and.
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I don't know if you saw the Bills signed today, they signed
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Brandon Cooks is. It really who tells you all you
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really need to know? Asked for his release from New
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Orleans because he was not getting used down there.
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So obviously they're looking for help.
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Yeah. So I think.
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You could do worse than that. So for Josh Allen owners out
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there, here's the good news. You've got Pittsburgh coming up,
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then you've got Cincinnati coming up.
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I mean, that's that's a free everybody gets right.
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Yeah. Just put your 50 points on the
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board and over like, yeah, give yourself a little wiggle room.
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Maybe only 40 that week for him, but he's going to trounce that
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team, especially if Joe Burrows back.
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That's going to be a a high scoring affair.
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Let me have a fun game. All right, so As for that game,
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I want to talk about another fun one because last week we had to
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suffer talking about it. But the Colts, the number one
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team in the AFC S came into Arrowhead and left with an L2320
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at overtime and Kansas City had to earn this stupid thing.
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They were down and they needed everything to get down. 11
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points in the fourth quarter, they go down, score, get the two
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point conversion, go down again and kind of hope they would have
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scored before the end of the game.
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I think we all did. We got the field goal and then
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overtime, stuffed him and then took it to the house for the
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field goal. So that was what I needed to see
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for Kansas City and last week in many, many weeks because we
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haven't won a close game this entire season, which is
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horrible. But this week, the defense
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actually made the plays when they needed to make and we kept
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Jonathan Taylor in check, made Daniel Jones beat us, which he
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couldn't. I thought that was pretty good
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for Kansas City out there. Gents, what do you take from
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this game which is about take on what you saw?
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Well, I agree, it was fun to see football could be fun again.
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So that was fun. But I will say the thing that I
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was most impressed with, and I think the thing that Kansas City
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has had trouble with is running the ball.
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And they had 100 yard rusher. And I don't remember the last
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time they had 100 yard rusher. I really don't.
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It's been a long time. And it's it was like 87 year old
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Kareem Hunt who they get they gave the ball to 30 times in, in
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a game which like typically the the Chiefs biggest problems have
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come from the fact that they abandoned the run real quick and
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everything becomes Patty, Patty, Patty, Patty, Patty Carious,
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Patty, please, Carious and the defenses, you're done.
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You're done. Let's go to Patty now.
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Yeah. And then it becomes like, oh,
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no, like the defenses can can, you know, hone in on that, and
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that's a problem. So they got down and they didn't
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give up on the run, and hopefully they learned from
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that. Now I'm a little concerned.
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I would be concerned normally that Kareem Hunt at 87 years old
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had 30 carries for for the Dallas game.
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However, they must have known that Pacheco was gonna be ready
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and he is for for Thursday. So I would imagine a heavy dose
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of Pacheco in this next game. They also Damien Pierce.
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They. Signed Damien Pierce, which is a
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really interesting signing. Yep, in.
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Houston, I think that tells a couple things.
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One, it, it tells you that they're not at all happy with
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Elijah Mitchell, who they signed.
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I think that was a wasted signing.
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He hasn't found the field yet. And, and two, that, that I think
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he's, I think you're going to see him like I, I think, I think
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Julian Pierce will be a guy 'cause they're, they're, they
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brought up Clyde Edwards to lair this week.
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There ain't nothing in that tank, that's for sure.
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I love Clyde and he's a good dude and I want to stick with
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him. Brokeback Mountain, though, I
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just can't quit you, Clyde. I just can't quit you.
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Like I wish we would quit Clyde, because he never, ever has been
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what we thought he'd be coming out of LSU with that.
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What? 31st pick?
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32nd pick. Towards the end of the.
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First round guy, he's never been anything he had a.
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Decent rookie year and then that was it.
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Yeah, what do you think for Colts versus the Chiefs game?
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So the defense showed up in the fourth quarter and I was like,
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where have these guys been all game?
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And then I thought, oh, it's because they're blitzing like
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Spags, for whatever reason, kind of held back the 1st 3/4.
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And then midway through the third quarter on on through the
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4th, it was like, all right, now I'm going to bring the pressure.
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Now I'm going to force Daniel Jones to beat us.
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And it became pretty clear that he couldn't.
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And they had like four or three an ounce in a row or something.
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I was like, I, I think a lot of it was maybe the last few games,
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a lot of it's been too soft on the, on the blitzing front and
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Spags finally turned up the heat a little bit and got it back to
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his normal aggressive self. So I I think that was a big
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turning point for me. Yeah, I agree.
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And I and the Chiefs defense held Jonathan Taylor to 58 yards
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rushing. And Jonathan Taylor has been
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before this game, people were saying he's he could be the MVP.
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Yep, at running back, which would be crazy.
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But you know, the fact that they did that off of bye week, so
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fresh Jonathan Taylor shows that the run defense is there.
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And if they can, they can figure out how to apply some pressure
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to the past, like you're saying, through they could be back.
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We're all Chief Sommers and our listeners know that.
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But I I think they're a playoff team still.
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And I think that if they figure some stuff out, they could be a
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scary playoff team. I think what we saw from
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Indianapolis is they're flawed, and I think everybody knew they
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were flawed a little bit, but maybe not as flawed as we.
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Thought yeah, I mean, they stood on Arrowhead and went to
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overtime and they kind of gave them away.
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They're 1/3 down away from winning.
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And thankfully for Chiefs owners and Chiefs fans out there, it
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was great. But all right, so I think Chiefs
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looking good going forward. We'll see how this Dallas game
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goes on Thanksgiving. It's going to be a huge game.
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Both teams coming off overtime. Big wins against conference
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opponents if they needed. Huge win for Dallas.
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Yep. So Dallas, coming off a 2421 OT
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win in Philly 21, Nothing coughed up 24 straight.
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Yeah, it was 21 nuts. And I think what you saw in this
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game, I heard it described as you know, they say that the
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football's a business, right? And this is these guys jobs.
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And basically what happened was Dallas was like the guy that got
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to work a little late, decided he he he was going to
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procrastinate not really do much till till he looked up the
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scoreboard and was like, Oh my God.
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So he went to hell. I got to do, I got to do this.
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And and then Philly Billy was the guy that got there at 7:00
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AM and was cranking away at his work and he got up and then he
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was like, that's about it for the day.
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We had a big lunch, had a lot of Turkey.
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I was going to lay down for a second.
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Surely nothing will go wrong if I lay down at halftime at a
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football game on Thanksgiving and they passed out.
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That was it, man. They woke up and then they fell
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off the rocker and they. Lost. 2421 but here's what I
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took out of the game is we've been mocking and shredding
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Dallas's defense all season yeah I guess if you get 6 new
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starters you can be quite a bit better like yeah substantially
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so I think Dallas defense went huh they're not that bad right
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They are OK, but they is it a Moroccan?
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They only gave up. 60, yeah. They only gave up 63 yards
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rushing. Yeah, to Philly.
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And that was after giving 6 yards up to Ashton Gente, who
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had 100 yards total offense against Cleveland.
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So I don't know man, maybe Dallas is better than we think.
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I'm going to give them some credit until they lose
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credibility again. But what are you guys on Dallas?
00:15:50
Philly. Can Dallas actually make a run
00:15:52
at Philly in this division? Or is it just a two week mirage
00:15:58
beating the Raiders and then beating a sleeping Philly in the
00:16:01
second-half? Yeah, I'm not quite sold on
00:16:03
Dallas. They, they did put up 1/2 and 21
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seconds. That was to be commended, right?
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They were, they were down 21 nothing until 21 seconds left in
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the first half. They finally got a touchdown
00:16:17
right at the end of the first half and I think they got the
00:16:20
ball first in the second-half. So anyway, they they didn't look
00:16:25
great the first half. They got down big early and then
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clawed their way back. So a lot.
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There's a lot to be said about clawing your way back against a
00:16:33
really good Philadelphia team. I want to see it consistently.
00:16:38
We'll see how they play the Chiefs this week.
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I hope they're not back. It's going.
00:16:43
To be a big game. Here's here's what I'll say
00:16:47
about them. I'm not sold on them either, but
00:16:50
I am sold on the rest of their schedule.
00:16:53
So they have the Chiefs that that's a, that's a tough game.
00:16:57
They're they're an underdog at home in that game.
00:17:00
After that though, they have the Lions tough game.
00:17:05
Yep. But then Vikings, Chargers,
00:17:09
Commanders, Giants, that's a that.
00:17:12
Cush end up going down the. Really final.
00:17:15
That's a pretty nice final four if you're going to pick who you
00:17:18
got to play. Vikings, Chargers, Commanders,
00:17:21
Giants. Yeah, that's, I mean that should
00:17:25
be four wins. There's no freebies.
00:17:27
Should be four wins though. If you play, you got to play
00:17:29
good games and the defence, that's right and the offense has
00:17:32
to show up because Jaden Daniels is going to be back.
00:17:34
It seems like he's practicing so by time three weeks from now.
00:17:38
That's. True, he's hard.
00:17:40
To. That could change things.
00:17:41
That could change things. And in Minnesota, I mean, The
00:17:43
thing is JJ McCarthy's out. So I don't know who they're
00:17:46
going to play now because Carson Wentz is also out.
00:17:48
So now I think we're starting the Gophers quarterback from
00:17:52
last season. He wasn't even good in the Big
00:17:54
10. Max Brosmer, Brosler.
00:17:57
I don't even. I can't.
00:17:58
I don't even know. Speaking of which guys I'll be
00:18:01
I'll be out of town the next few weeks.
00:18:03
I'm starting from Minnesota. They gave me a call.
00:18:07
I said, you know what, why not? I got out the better going on.
00:18:11
Fritz like yeah, sure. I, you know, well, Speaking of,
00:18:15
I was going to wait till later, but I feel like it's only
00:18:17
appropriate now to to talk about Mr. JJ McCarthy because you
00:18:21
know, Dex, I'm not going to say I told you so on JJ McCarthy.
00:18:25
I'm not it's I'm just going to, I'm just going to do a little
00:18:29
comparison. I'm just going to do a little
00:18:31
comparison. So a guy that I'm going to
00:18:35
compare him to is a a similar first round draft pick, the guy
00:18:40
named Jamarcus Russell, remember Jamarcus Russell.
00:18:44
So Jamarcus Russell was the was was the number one overall pick
00:18:48
by the the Los Angeles Raiders at the time, I think Oakland
00:18:53
Raiders, I think at the time and their first six career games.
00:18:57
Let's do a little comparison, OK?
00:18:58
Jamarcus Russell versus JJ McCarthy, This stupid thing.
00:19:02
So let's look at touchdowns. Touchdowns, OK.
00:19:07
Yes, well. No, here's good JJ McCarthy has
00:19:10
given more touchdowns in his first six games.
00:19:13
He has 6, and Jamarcus only had five.
00:19:16
OK, DeMarcus. Had five.
00:19:19
He had five. That's right.
00:19:21
Now let's look at interceptions. Yeah.
00:19:25
JJ 10 or so. JJ has 10.
00:19:29
DeMarcus had three completion percentage yeah so Marcus 54.5
00:19:36
JJ 54.1 yards Jamarcus 1051 JJ 929 he's.
00:19:46
Running the ball, we. Got to a nation.
00:19:47
That's giving up that like 200 yards this season.
00:19:51
Sacks, sacks allowed Jamarcus got sacked a whopping 16 times
00:19:57
in his first six starts. Which looks pretty good compared
00:20:02
to J JS 20 in his first six starts.
00:20:07
He's averaging 3 sacks a game in his first six starts.
00:20:12
And the last thing I want to pass out.
00:20:14
Passer rating. Passer rating.
00:20:17
DeMarcus not very good 76.9 but man you would think you're
00:20:23
getting a steal if you compared him to JJ McCarthy's faster
00:20:27
rating for his first six games. 57.9 JJ McCarthy in his first
00:20:34
six games, is worse than Jamarcus Russell.
00:20:41
All right, you, you done, you done that.
00:20:43
All right, counterpoint, let's look at someone else's first six
00:20:49
starts, John. Allen, Josh Allen.
00:20:53
Of the MVP ilk, yes. Started two and three with only
00:20:58
758 passing yards, which is more or less than JJ McCarthy.
00:21:03
That's more no, no less. It's frigging less.
00:21:08
All right, So how many less sounds does JJ have?
00:21:12
Let's. Go, let's go.
00:21:13
He's got 6. Josh Allen 2 All right, that's
00:21:17
how. Many wrestling did he have?
00:21:20
Hey, stay on point. Stay on.
00:21:24
All right, all right, all right. So a 2 to 5 touchdown
00:21:28
interception 6 to 10 I'm. 6 to 10 man they.
00:21:32
Have it's better striking these similar records?
00:21:36
Yeah, Allen passerating. A little more accurate, but not
00:21:42
by much. So passer rating.
00:21:45
I have a question. Essentially equal 62.5 to 61.7.
00:21:50
I'll give you the. I'll give you that.
00:21:52
Josh Allen developed when he stopped throwing the ball to the
00:21:54
other team and started throwing his own team and not airmailing
00:21:57
it and working on his mechanics. I will ask this one question
00:22:00
though. When Josh Allen was throwing to
00:22:02
Justin Jefferson during that time period.
00:22:08
And Jordan Madison and TJ Hawkinson, I'm sure they had
00:22:12
similar people he was throwing to.
00:22:15
You right I'm sorry I found these stats today and I was
00:22:20
like, you know I just want to share I want to I want to I'm a
00:22:24
it's the time of the year I'm in you're into giving I wanted to
00:22:27
give you the information so that you had it as a Vikings fan you
00:22:31
had to do make it a. Coal and stuff that this.
00:22:36
Is so thankful. Call it.
00:22:37
A present. This is so thankful for JJ
00:22:40
McCarthy. Well, JJ is not playing this
00:22:46
week, so there's that. Which is probably why it's a 10
00:22:49
1/2 point. Spread.
00:22:51
Is he hurt again? Is he hurt?
00:22:54
Hey, I've got to work on some things, but yeah, I think he is.
00:22:59
What does the depth chart look like this year?
00:23:01
I'm going to look up the Vikings depth chart.
00:23:03
Match Broser Brosler, Brosler. That's right, I.
00:23:08
Don't know, maybe. JJ is playing, he's got a
00:23:10
concussion, so as long as he gets out of concussion protocol,
00:23:12
we're all right. Okay, I don't think that's
00:23:15
happening. I'm going to be honest.
00:23:17
Max Brosner. Max Brosner, and there isn't
00:23:20
anybody listed after him. So that's a problem.
00:23:25
Pruitt is. Next up.
00:23:26
Yeah, somebody named Ryan Pruitt signed to the practice squad
00:23:29
today, so. Wait, wait, They do have a guy.
00:23:34
They do have a guy named John Wolford on the practice squad
00:23:37
who he just made to name up. I just he's 13.
00:23:41
He's. 13 casting or something. He's 30, he's 30 and I've never
00:23:47
heard of him. He's 30 and Chism.
00:23:51
He's experienced and he's. Been with It is five years in
00:23:56
the NFL. He's been with The Jets, Rams,
00:23:59
Buccaneers, Panthers, Jaguars. All.
00:24:05
Right, we have spun off the rails.
00:24:08
I know where I've heard of him. He was a former Co worker of
00:24:12
Kurt Warner's at the grocery store before he became that's.
00:24:17
Right, he was bagging groceries. He's doing some great stuff.
00:24:22
He's over on aisle 6 all. Right.
00:24:24
Well, I love Arena. League too, he probably.
00:24:26
Was Arena League actually all right?
00:24:29
All right, let's go. On some other.
00:24:30
Games we're not going to go in too in depth New England beating
00:24:33
Cincinnati 2620. This is the last game for Flacco
00:24:38
because Joe Burrows back and we're going to see what that
00:24:40
looks like and see if he's actually mobile on that foot,
00:24:43
which sounded like it was kind of disconnected off foot.
00:24:47
Like I don't know what yeah, might sound like a bad one.
00:24:49
So we'll see what that looks like.
00:24:50
But Drake may again does enough to win and it wasn't really his
00:24:56
best game, but I guess especially gets a bad defense.
00:24:59
But he did enough. So good job New England winning.
00:25:01
He did. They are going to lock down that
00:25:03
one seed in the AFC and probably get the bye because as we
00:25:07
highlighted, their upcoming schedule is the hottest of hot
00:25:11
garbage that you could even pretend like it's a dream boat
00:25:15
schedule for like, oh, I just need to make the playoffs like,
00:25:17
oh, Shamus, I might I might get the one seat out of this thing.
00:25:20
And their only other hard game is another game at Buffalo.
00:25:25
And, well, it's a home game actually against Buffalo, so.
00:25:27
This is who the Patriots have played this year, Raiders,
00:25:30
Dolphins, Steelers, Panthers, Bills, Saints, Titans, Browns,
00:25:35
Falcons, Buccaneers, Jets, Bengals, Giants, and then they
00:25:40
have Bills, Ravens, Jets, Dolphins left.
00:25:44
It is statistically the easiest schedule in the NFL and maybe
00:25:48
the easiest schedule I've ever seen in my life.
00:25:50
They have like 3 games. It is the softest it.
00:25:55
Is Sharman. Soft baby, I mean you, but.
00:25:57
To be fair to them, they've won the games and well, you you can
00:26:02
have a Charmin schedule and lose games so.
00:26:05
They started, they started one and two against Vegas.
00:26:10
And what was the third one? It's.
00:26:12
Vegas, the Dolphins and Steelers.
00:26:15
That's right. So they lost to Pittsburgh, they
00:26:16
lost to Vegas, they squeaked by. And the other two they they were
00:26:21
almost Oh, and three. But anyway, Yep, it's gonna be
00:26:23
interesting to see how that plays out.
00:26:26
Another game that Yeah. The fun fact we talked about in
00:26:29
the Patreon decks is they're probably gonna be the one seed.
00:26:32
They're probably gonna have the buy.
00:26:33
And right now they have the 9th best odds to win the Super Bowl.
00:26:38
Yeah, according to Vegas. So they they know they're gonna
00:26:40
get a buy and they're saying we still think they're the 9th best
00:26:46
chance of winning the Super Bowl.
00:26:47
Vegas knows. They know I mean.
00:26:49
Seriously, they'll be They'll be hosting a game and that's all.
00:26:54
That's all fine and well, but if Buffalo comes into town, or
00:26:57
Baltimore, or the Colts or the. The Chiefs.
00:27:01
Chiefs, Denver. I mean, I don't know who you
00:27:07
feel. Great.
00:27:07
I don't know who they'd be favored against in the AFC
00:27:10
playoffs. They if they chargers maybe.
00:27:13
Jacksonville or Houston, They'd probably be favored.
00:27:16
Denver, yeah. Chargers, they'd probably be
00:27:18
favored, yeah, and that's a maybe.
00:27:21
That's probably like a 1 1/2 favored.
00:27:23
Yeah. I mean, they wouldn't even get
00:27:24
the full 3 right, but right. Other than that, I mean, yeah, I
00:27:30
think you're right. I don't know who the hell to be
00:27:32
favored against. So that's kind of interesting
00:27:34
that a one seed with a buy is going to be hosting week two
00:27:38
games as an underdog at. Home maybe be an.
00:27:41
Underdog. That would be awesome.
00:27:41
Most. Likely, Most likely.
00:27:43
Most likely. Yeah, most likely.
00:27:45
Anything can happen. All right.
00:27:46
An interesting game. Pittsburgh, Chicago.
00:27:49
Ben Johnson, man, Good job. Ben Johnson, head coach.
00:27:53
Yeah. Bears.
00:27:53
You've made this team win close games look competitive.
00:27:57
You're winning. You're you're leading the
00:28:00
division. I I I don't know.
00:28:03
I'm shocked. I didn't think he could do it
00:28:05
this fast, but the Bears, the NFC North 8 and 3, and frankly,
00:28:11
they look like Caleb. Williams looks like a pretty
00:28:13
good quarterback right now. Dressing all he is playing some
00:28:18
football. He's he's not throwing the ball.
00:28:20
The other team, he's not fumble ruski in it.
00:28:22
They have a running game. So it really does look a little
00:28:25
bit like kind of the systems that Ben Johnson been running
00:28:29
the last few years. But he's given a lot to Menon
00:28:31
guys. So from fantasy perspective,
00:28:33
Menon Guy, I feel way more comfortable with him than I do
00:28:36
at DeAndre Swift. And he's getting the carries,
00:28:39
especially as it gets colder and we start getting those black and
00:28:42
blue games up in the snow at Soldier Field.
00:28:45
I mean, who do you really want? I don't know, Monoga looks
00:28:48
pretty good so. You know, the only strange thing
00:28:52
out of Chicago decks that as we look into that a little bit, I
00:28:55
agree. I think Ben Johnson's done
00:28:56
great. I think Caleb Williams is what
00:28:57
much approved and I bagged on him like crazy.
00:29:00
Oh yeah. We all did.
00:29:03
It, it's super, it's super weird to me that in all of this, that
00:29:07
Roma Dunze is still not a factor.
00:29:11
So I don't know if Roma Dunze is the problem or you know, what's
00:29:15
going on, but a guy that's that talented.
00:29:18
And I do think Roma Dunze is talented, yeah.
00:29:22
They work this game 3 for 53 and as we've talked about in
00:29:25
previous episodes, especially the last few beginning of the
00:29:28
season, he was a in game player for guillotine.
00:29:31
He was a solid contributor just for standard fantasy leagues.
00:29:34
Now he's unplayable like if you're starting him, you've got
00:29:37
injuries and by weeks. That's the only way of Tuesday
00:29:39
is getting to your lineup anymore, especially given this
00:29:42
late because you should have been picking up far better
00:29:45
players than Roma doones day for right now.
00:29:48
Yeah, DJ Moore. I'm I guess if you're DJ Moore
00:29:50
owner good for him. He finally looked good this
00:29:53
week. I mean I had to start him in one
00:29:55
of my leagues. Yeah, thank goodness.
00:29:56
He had two touchdowns, 5K or five catch, I think 67 yards,
00:30:00
something like that. It's a good week.
00:30:02
And the other thing for Chicago is we talked about in beginning
00:30:05
in a rookie preview, we like him as a player, 10th overall pick.
00:30:08
Colston Loveland starting to look pretty good.
00:30:11
So Colston Loveland is getting more touches, more plays, more
00:30:15
routes. It's it's even with Cole command
00:30:18
if he's not taking the lead now. And so I think you can start
00:30:21
feeling probably pretty comfortable if you need a flex
00:30:25
spot or if one of your Titans got hurt and you're just kind of
00:30:28
struggle busting right now. Colson Loveland is not the
00:30:30
worst. He's not what, three straight
00:30:32
weeks of double digit points? And that's not horrible.
00:30:36
So I think he got in the end zone and they they're targeting
00:30:39
him in the end zone too. So he's getting those looks.
00:30:41
Ben Johnson starting to trust him.
00:30:42
Caleb Williams starting to trust him and the Bears.
00:30:44
As in the last starting to use him in the last seven weeks,
00:30:49
Roma Doonsay has one touchdown in the last seven weeks, Colston
00:30:52
Loveland has three. Yeah.
00:30:54
So you could see how that shifted pretty significantly in
00:30:58
terms of who they're looking for.
00:31:00
And I agree, Like he's I feel I would feel more comfortable
00:31:03
with. I can't believe I'm gonna say
00:31:04
this, but I feel more comfortable with Colston
00:31:06
Loveland in my starting lineup than Roma Doonsay right now.
00:31:08
Yep, I think so too, bro. Where are you at on that?
00:31:11
Do you like Colson Loveland going forward or do you still
00:31:14
believe in a Doonesay? I think we're bagging on him too
00:31:16
much. No, it's, it's, it is really
00:31:19
sketchy. He was a very solid contributor
00:31:22
to those first 5-4 weeks going into their, you know, they had
00:31:26
an early bye, Yeah, right. And and he was averaging, I
00:31:31
don't know, 16 points a week and then he had a a 32 point
00:31:36
performance in Week 2, right. And then after the bye he's had,
00:31:41
yeah. That was his.
00:31:41
Best week, yeah. And then after the bye, he's had
00:31:47
five games under 10 points and fantasy points and Chicago's and
00:31:53
Chicago's been putting up. That's Kamara level right there.
00:31:56
Yeah, and Chicago's been putting up a lot of points. 4724 They.
00:32:01
Have right? 19 and then 31, he's just not
00:32:05
getting the ball. And that's supposed to be your,
00:32:08
that's supposed to be your one receiver.
00:32:10
That's the hardest part about it.
00:32:12
Well, so to be fair, we did talk in the earlier this season, kind
00:32:16
of before the season kicked off that he had a lot of weapons on
00:32:20
the team, right? DJ Moore's an established wide
00:32:23
receiver. We knew about Loveland that he
00:32:25
was going to be a top tight end prospect.
00:32:28
Cole Commet's been around for a while.
00:32:31
So Adunte is joined by others. Luther Burden, too, right?
00:32:35
Burden is now getting some targets, yeah, but.
00:32:38
No one's really blown up past like the 60 yards a game thing
00:32:42
though. That's what's weird.
00:32:42
About Chicago, so I don't know, part of it's part of it's an
00:32:46
anomaly. And then there's there's
00:32:48
probably something to it. Maybe he's more comfortable with
00:32:51
Loveland's development. Maybe Ben Johnson's not ready to
00:32:54
release Caleb Williams quite fully to throw the ball down the
00:33:00
field and all that. Maybe he's more comfortable with
00:33:03
the shorter intermediate Rob or something.
00:33:05
Sense I feel like Ben Johnson knows what happens when he does.
00:33:08
I feel like it's when Caleb Williams gets in troubles, when
00:33:10
he starts trying to make plays instead of taking us in front of
00:33:13
him. Feel like Ben Johnson is doing a
00:33:15
good job of calling an offense that take what's there, man,
00:33:19
will be just fine. We have playmakers and they're
00:33:21
going to get it, and we can. Run.
00:33:22
I will say, though, guillotine, I don't I don't like, I don't
00:33:27
like any of the Bears as much as they're scoring.
00:33:30
I don't like any of the Bears. If I'm in a guillotine yeah,
00:33:33
league and I'm still alive. The floors are way too low on
00:33:36
all these guys and they don't have high enough ceilings.
00:33:39
So yeah, like I would probably steer clear of the Bears, even
00:33:43
though they have a very high scoring offense right now.
00:33:46
Yeah, and that's all of them. That's Caleb Williams all the
00:33:48
way down. I agree.
00:33:49
That's. Yeah.
00:33:50
They're kind of nerve wracking. If you're going to be starting
00:33:52
them, you're like, I hope this works out.
00:33:54
All right, let's talk about another team that's supposed to
00:33:56
be pretty Dang good and we talked about on our Patreon.
00:34:00
Just doesn't seem to beat anybody good.
00:34:02
So Detroit hangs on against the Giants with Jameis Winston at
00:34:09
Detroit 3427 with a game where Jameer Gibbs breaks the bank
00:34:15
with what, 55 points, fantasy points of 219 yards rushing, 2
00:34:20
touchdowns, 11 catches, 45 yards and another touchdown and you
00:34:25
have to hang on against the Giants with Tyrone Tracy and
00:34:30
Jameis Winston. That's that's how if I'm a
00:34:34
Detroit fan, like good Lord, what is happening?
00:34:37
We should be. That should have been like a 20
00:34:38
point spread, not hanging on and scoring at the end with the
00:34:42
Jamir Gibbs super play. What do you think about Detroit
00:34:46
moving forward? Are do they make you nervous or
00:34:50
are they like, yeah, they're just fine?
00:34:51
They're going to get to the NFC Championship game no problem.
00:34:54
I wouldn't say it that way. I there's they're still a very
00:34:57
good team. I think they have a lot of
00:34:58
talent. Gibbs is obviously one of the
00:35:00
best running backs in the league, one of the best players
00:35:04
in the league period, I guess so they can still put up a ton of
00:35:07
points. Their defense serviceable.
00:35:10
They did a decent job. They're going to win a lot of
00:35:12
games, but they look a little more flawed than they have in
00:35:17
the last couple of years. They look beatable now.
00:35:20
It really is. And sometimes the offense
00:35:23
doesn't work, which is amazing to me.
00:35:25
And the defense has a lot of talent.
00:35:27
I mean, they actually have most of their starters back.
00:35:29
Last year they just got decimated, I think.
00:35:31
Yeah. Didn't they have 8 out of 11
00:35:33
starters out by the time they limped into the playoffs?
00:35:36
At one point back. And Aidan Hutchinson is having
00:35:40
an All Pro season and zone or whatever that his name is, the
00:35:44
blonde Fabio. He's been.
00:35:47
Playing really well, they seem to have a lot of good players,
00:35:51
but as a unit they're giving up a lot of big plays at the wrong
00:35:55
time, and I don't know what's up with that.
00:35:57
It's kind of strange, but I guess when you lose your
00:35:59
defensive coordinator, that's been there for years and maybe
00:36:04
that's a big bigger deal than I give it credit for.
00:36:06
But the defense has talent, but they're not putting it together.
00:36:09
Have you seen that the same way or?
00:36:12
Yeah, I don't think I have them as my, I can't believe it, but I
00:36:17
have them as my 5th, 5th best NFC team right now.
00:36:22
So. I would put the Rams, the
00:36:24
Eagles. Yep, Seattle.
00:36:27
Yep, absolutely. And this is the controversial
00:36:31
one, but I would put I would put Green Bay ahead of them too.
00:36:33
So you could argue, you know, maybe one of them maybe flip
00:36:38
flopping those, but I don't I don't think they have a clear
00:36:43
path to the to the NFC championship game even.
00:36:49
Nope, I don't think so. Right.
00:36:50
Especially when they're they're not good, they're not even
00:36:54
leading their division. So they're going to be starting
00:36:56
on the road, which is always a tough place to start the
00:36:58
playoffs unless you're Eli Manning and the Giants and you
00:37:01
the worst seed taking to the house both years you start up
00:37:05
with a six seed. But other than that, yeah, it
00:37:07
does. I'd be a little wary if I'm
00:37:11
Detroit. I mean, from a fantasy
00:37:12
perspective, though, Jamir Gibbs, good Lord, he's killing
00:37:16
it. I'm around St.
00:37:17
Brown killing it. But past that, and this is where
00:37:21
I'm kind of getting to for guillotine.
00:37:23
We're just talking about the the Bears kind of make you nervous.
00:37:27
Jameson Williams has dropped to 0, and Damian Montgomery wasn't
00:37:32
much better. It wasn't 0.
00:37:33
But he's not getting in the end zone.
00:37:36
He's definitely last year it seemed like more of like if you
00:37:40
started Montgomery and Gibbs, they both are giving you like 15
00:37:43
to 20 and this year it is not that.
00:37:47
As a David Montgomery owner in a couple different leagues where I
00:37:50
thought I could just punch in and have me get my touchdown a
00:37:52
week, he is not doing that this year.
00:37:56
And frankly, none of the other guys are too.
00:37:58
Jared Goff's not as consistent as he was.
00:38:01
It's kind of I'm around Gibbs. Is there anyone else on the
00:38:03
Detroit Lions that you trust as far as you can throw them on a
00:38:08
week to week basis? I mean, maybe Laporta.
00:38:10
I mean, do you give Laporta some credit for tight end even
00:38:12
though? One name you did not mention was
00:38:17
Ben Johnson. Yeah.
00:38:18
Do you think that's do you think that's had an effect?
00:38:20
Yeah. I mean, they're still scoring
00:38:22
points, but yeah, I think you're right.
00:38:25
Losing both coordinators has had a.
00:38:27
Yeah. Demonstrable effect on what they
00:38:30
are looking at I. Agree.
00:38:33
Yeah. Because one team is looking
00:38:35
better. The Bears.
00:38:36
One team is looking better, right?
00:38:38
Yeah. We talked about it before the
00:38:39
season that he would have some sort of effects and we were
00:38:43
hoping that they would still run basically the same offense,
00:38:46
which I think they probably are. Yep.
00:38:49
But like you said, it's unbalanced now between Gibbs and
00:38:52
Montgomery and unbalanced between Almond Raw and everybody
00:38:56
else. So they've, you're right, kind
00:39:00
of they've taken a step backwards there.
00:39:02
Chicago's taking a step forward. I got to believe it's the Ben
00:39:05
Johnson effect, right? And now Dan Campbell's calling
00:39:08
the plays and it's big deal. It's it's not working out as
00:39:11
well. Your targets.
00:39:13
Your targets to show how one-dimensional they become in
00:39:16
passing. Aman Rossi Brown has had 107
00:39:20
targets. The next highest is Jameer Gibbs
00:39:26
at 55. Oh my gosh, so.
00:39:30
He is. He is almost half.
00:39:32
And then the next receiver is Jameson Williams of 51, Sam
00:39:37
LaPorte at 49. So it is really the Aman Raw St.
00:39:41
Brown show and then and the Jamir Gibbs show.
00:39:43
Because if he's not handing it to him, he's throwing it to him.
00:39:46
Yeah. So those are the ones you guys I
00:39:49
trust on that team. I'm not too insulted by Aman RAW
00:39:51
having that many targets. I'm just amazed that number 2 is
00:39:54
half that. Yeah, that's that's.
00:39:57
That's and it's a running back. Yeah, it's a running back.
00:40:00
Well, so. Back with Montgomery, right?
00:40:03
So basically 100 and then fifty 5050, right?
00:40:07
So Aman Rao is getting 40% of the target share and that's what
00:40:12
Garrett Wilson was getting for The Jets until they figured out
00:40:16
that he was getting 40% of the target share.
00:40:18
You're right. And they started shutting that
00:40:20
down. So not too shocking that they've
00:40:24
they're kind of figuring the the Detroit offense out and it's
00:40:29
sputtering, right? That's great.
00:40:30
And you just think so That's probably including last week.
00:40:33
And Jamir Gibbs had 11 catches last week, so he wasn't 40.
00:40:38
Actually, I got more catches than I'm gonna.
00:40:39
What are you talking about? I gotta just be open and get 4
00:40:42
yards to catch It's. Easy.
00:40:45
Yeah, the next team might want to consider a linebacker
00:40:48
covering Gibbs in the flat. That's right.
00:40:51
Maybe the 1st order of business. So the next.
00:40:53
Game I want to talk to is kind of an interesting 1.
00:40:56
So Seattle at Tennessee, Seattle kind of had to hang on.
00:41:00
They got up early and then it was kind of a laugher and
00:41:03
everybody's kind of going to the bus.
00:41:04
It's kind of like they had the same thing Philly did.
00:41:06
They had a bunch of Turkey at lunch and then took a nap on the
00:41:09
recliner. Now I was saying like Oh my God,
00:41:11
what the hell happened? Tennessee, what are you doing in
00:41:12
my rearview mirror? And it was like objects and
00:41:14
mirror are closer than they appear.
00:41:16
It was Tennessee was storming back behind Shamir DK and I
00:41:22
don't even know who else someone else had of been doing.
00:41:24
Something. Oh, it must be Ward.
00:41:27
Yeah, Cam Ward. He did.
00:41:30
Yeah, he did. This the Tennessee is fighting
00:41:34
kind of harder than we think they should if they want to keep
00:41:36
their drafts. They should.
00:41:38
They should be dead. Right, and I love their fighting
00:41:41
hard in Tennessee. I think this is going to look
00:41:45
good for them moving forward. So Nashville next season, what
00:41:48
they're doing now could start paying dividends.
00:41:50
If they get another influx of talent, they can be pretty good.
00:41:53
But Seattle, still, they do what they need to do to win.
00:41:56
They got up early. Jackson Smith and Jigba, my
00:41:59
goodness, I think he should be talked about more for offensive
00:42:03
player of the year. Me too.
00:42:05
I think he may well win the Triple Crown like Jamar Chase
00:42:08
did last year. And every single week you can
00:42:13
count him. I think he is by far the number
00:42:16
one wide receiver to count on on a week to week basis in fantasy.
00:42:21
And he did it again this week. So 8 for 169 and two more
00:42:25
touchdowns and kind of what you're talking about Pruitt,
00:42:29
even though Aman Raj is getting that many targets, they still
00:42:32
can't do anything about it. Jackson Smith and Jigma, who the
00:42:36
heck is opposite of him? I mean, just a bunch of nothing
00:42:39
burgers over there, right? He's just beating coverages left
00:42:44
and right. Yeah, Keeper Cup on his last
00:42:47
tire right now it is. 2 flat tires.
00:42:49
He's in the golf cart. Yeah.
00:42:51
And Toy Smith and Jigma just keeps.
00:42:52
Getting open, yeah, but he's been kind of sick, too.
00:42:55
It's just a bunch of nobodies. No, yeah.
00:42:58
I'm agreeing with you. What?
00:43:00
Do you mean AJ Barner? AJ Barnyard Barner?
00:43:04
That's right. Yeah.
00:43:04
I mean, you take away those two studs and then it's just, yeah.
00:43:08
I mean, you kind of know they got a double barner to get Smith
00:43:11
and Jibba open, but it's kind of crazy how he's continuing just
00:43:15
week after week to be this good when, you know, defensive
00:43:19
coordinators are scheming against him.
00:43:21
But hey, good for him. I love that.
00:43:23
Yeah, one more game I want to talk about.
00:43:26
I mean, there's more that's out there, but I think the
00:43:28
interesting ones is Cleveland and Las Vegas.
00:43:33
Chadur Sanders, just because we got to talk Chadur, he is the
00:43:38
first Cleveland quarterback in his first start to win a game.
00:43:43
And how long? I can't remember the stat, but
00:43:45
it was. For it's like the 90s, yeah.
00:43:48
It's. A very, very long time.
00:43:51
Like Tim Couch might have been the last one.
00:43:53
I don't even know. It was something.
00:43:54
I think it was actually, I think it was Bailey Zappy, if I
00:43:57
remember correctly, that legend Bailey Zappy was the guy who won
00:44:01
on his his first start. But I mean, hey, I, I have been
00:44:06
a guy who I think, sure, Sanders is an interesting story because
00:44:09
he's one of these guys that everybody knew everything was
00:44:13
given to Shooter Sanders. OK, let's just call a spade a
00:44:17
spade. His dad coached him.
00:44:19
He got the start. It's not that he didn't have
00:44:22
talent. He's Got Talent, but everything
00:44:25
was given to him. So when everything is given to
00:44:27
you, people generally don't want to cheer for you.
00:44:30
So I think everyone's kind of waiting for this downfall to
00:44:34
happen. And he's, listen, he's not a
00:44:37
great quarterback, but I got to give him some credit. 11 for
00:44:41
22109 yards, touchdown interception.
00:44:46
Not bad for a start, right? I mean, Ouch.
00:44:50
It hurts to say so yeah, yeah, pretty similar completion
00:44:54
person. Give him a little props and
00:44:57
yeah, right. You kind of got to give him a
00:44:59
little bit of props and you kind of got to say well, good for
00:45:01
him. Everybody's hating on him.
00:45:02
He comes out, he delivers, is is in that kind of a game.
00:45:06
So I'm interested. I am too.
00:45:09
I'm interested. Let's watch.
00:45:10
Let's see. What happens, I mean, that was
00:45:12
against the the Raiders who have now coordinator.
00:45:17
So Chip Kelly has been fired because that's kind of mean
00:45:21
though. I mean, he got fired going
00:45:22
against Cleveland. I mean, that's a really good
00:45:24
defense. But you really like what are you
00:45:28
doing? You have talent back there.
00:45:30
But Gino's, I don't know what happened to Gino Smith.
00:45:34
He just is from last year to this year, the Cliff has shown
00:45:38
up and he has fallen off, said Cliff.
00:45:41
It's not even fun to watch him play.
00:45:42
He just just terrible. Yeah, yeah, Bowers and Genti.
00:45:45
And here's the good news for Genti owners out there for
00:45:47
fantasy. So guillotine, he is getting so
00:45:50
many catches the last couple weeks that was not there all
00:45:55
season. 8 catches this week. Yeah, I.
00:45:58
Mean that's Jamir Gibbs like but.
00:46:00
Yeah. Total yards, but exactly.
00:46:03
But these catches, because if you can't run through a line
00:46:06
that can't block, this is the only way to do it.
00:46:09
And it's sort of what the San Francisco 49ers are doing
00:46:12
because CMC is awesome. He is not a 3.4 yard per carry
00:46:17
back and they're having to get him involved by doing the exact
00:46:20
same thing. So that's right, sometimes it's
00:46:22
just the only way to do it. It's an extension of your own
00:46:24
game, doing the screen passes and the flat passes and they're
00:46:27
not sexy, but when you only need 5 to 7 yard to pop, sounds good
00:46:31
move. That's right, move the chain.
00:46:33
So I think that's good for Gente owners out there that we're
00:46:36
seeing this. But I throw that out because
00:46:39
Chip Kelly just got fired. I don't know what we're going to
00:46:43
do, but I feel like the new guy's going to have to do the
00:46:44
same thing because you can't run up the middle of Genteel behind
00:46:47
that line because he gets hit 2 yards in the backfield like he.
00:46:50
Has to run. Fast to get the handoff before
00:46:53
the defense starts and that's scary.
00:46:56
I got to get there first. How in the hell I got five guys
00:46:58
blocking? It feels a little bit like when
00:47:01
you used to play Super Techno Bowl and the guys would blitz
00:47:05
and you were like. He knocked the guy off and dude,
00:47:10
the guy just runs through to block the field goals.
00:47:12
That's what the Raiders line looks like against everybody.
00:47:15
You just, it's right. Everybody storms in.
00:47:18
It is unbelievable how this works.
00:47:20
I mean, Gino's taking a lot of sacks and it's like 3 guys at
00:47:24
once, right? It's never one offensive line
00:47:26
getting beat, it's three or four of them getting beat on every
00:47:30
play. So feel bad for the guy but.
00:47:32
Yeah, it is just brutal. It's no fun he got.
00:47:35
Sacked 10/10 times in that game, 10 times for 77.
00:47:44
Negative yards. Oh my gosh.
00:47:47
Honestly, I can see why the offensive coordinator got fired
00:47:51
after that, right? If you're getting sacked that
00:47:53
many times, it's time to do something different.
00:47:56
Call better players, make an adjustment, yeah.
00:48:00
Right seven step drop, right throw some wide receiver
00:48:04
screens. Like.
00:48:06
Yeah, an extra lineman. Totally tight ends, right?
00:48:10
I mean, let's just go. Yeah, you got 2 good tight ends.
00:48:14
Put Mayor in the line and let him check somebody on the way
00:48:17
out. Totally it.
00:48:19
Just it shouldn't be this hard to give some type of protection.
00:48:24
We have plays and packages for this.
00:48:26
There's history. There's tape.
00:48:27
There's ways to do. It the the lineman are
00:48:30
professionals. Allegedly, allegedly they are
00:48:35
all right. One of the game I forgot about
00:48:36
this one is because they're going for a division title
00:48:41
Jacksonville. I mean, they're not in the lead
00:48:43
yet because they're right behind Indy, but at Arizona, they had
00:48:50
to win in overtime against a team that is just terrible.
00:48:54
That Arizona team is not good. Jacoby Brissett's made them
00:48:58
better, but Jacksonville? Yeah.
00:49:01
You're supposed to be a playoff contender.
00:49:03
You're supposed to be trying to win your division and you're
00:49:05
squeaking by an overtime at Arizona against their 4th and
00:49:09
5th string running backs, Their backup quarterback.
00:49:13
They. Don't have Harrison and it's
00:49:15
just McBride. Just cover them and they gave up
00:49:18
ten catches to Michael Wilson after getting 15 last week.
00:49:22
It's not like I didn't see that coming.
00:49:24
You should. They just the tape you just
00:49:27
watched was him getting the ball all the time.
00:49:29
Figure it out, man. So it's kind of crazy how
00:49:32
Jacksonville they won. I guess I'll give them the
00:49:35
credit that they won. They just didn't look very good
00:49:37
doing. It the thing that's scariest to
00:49:39
me about Jacksonville is is how loose Trevor Lawrence is with
00:49:45
the ball. Oh man.
00:49:47
He is like, this is a game that all you got to do is go in there
00:49:52
and not turn it over. They turned the ball over 4
00:49:54
times. Yeah, 3 interceptions by Trevor
00:49:57
Lawrence. He threw 3 touchdowns, but he
00:49:59
threw 3 interceptions. And this is one of those games
00:50:02
where all you got to do is not crap yourself.
00:50:04
Just go in and like, like run the run the standard plays.
00:50:09
Don't take any risks. You're better than them.
00:50:13
You're, you're going to win, you know?
00:50:14
But he he still has this tendency and he's too
00:50:18
experienced in the NFL to have this.
00:50:21
Yeah. And it's the scary thing about
00:50:22
Lawrence. He everybody knows he's got a
00:50:24
lot of talent. He came out of college.
00:50:25
He's very highly he. Is number one out of Clemson.
00:50:28
He's like a little and, and, and he's got all the skill set, but
00:50:32
like at some point as an NFL quarterback, you got to realize
00:50:36
don't throw that. And he's still not realizing
00:50:39
that in a big game in a big moment.
00:50:42
And that's scary to me if I'm a Jacksonville fan.
00:50:45
Yeah, no, I agree. All right, so let's go.
00:50:49
That was a lot of recap. So listeners out there, we got,
00:50:52
we got sidetracked a little bit, kind of went off some tangents
00:50:55
and. We did we.
00:50:57
Did. But let's talk briefly because
00:50:59
there's only two weeks left in most leagues to bid on players.
00:51:03
You've got this week's batch and next week's batch.
00:51:06
So that being said, we kind of hinted at it, but Pruitt, tell
00:51:10
us what to do going on the stretch with our last couple
00:51:13
bucks in our wallet. What are we doing with these?
00:51:15
Do we need to save something or do we go all in?
00:51:18
So tell us who's chopped and what we should bid on them.
00:51:20
All right, so like you said, it's only two bid cycles left
00:51:26
for the season this week. Most Chopped players Josh Allen
00:51:32
was #1 believe it or not, after a up and down, another down
00:51:37
performance after a super up performance last week.
00:51:41
Stefan Diggs kind of a dud this week at Gluco is nowhere to be
00:51:45
found. Lamar Jackson has been not good
00:51:50
after returning from injury. He was on the the top 10 Chopped
00:51:54
list this week. Aaron Williams kind of an
00:51:57
oddball because LA dominated that game, but a lot of passing
00:52:03
plays, right? Really not much action for Kyron
00:52:05
Williams. Nico Collins kind of a down
00:52:10
week. And then the last two I'll
00:52:14
mention in the top ten were Devon A Chain and DeAndre Swift,
00:52:19
though all those guys, many of those guys could be available in
00:52:24
your league this week. We talked earlier about Josh
00:52:27
Allen and the value that that he can create for your team.
00:52:31
He's a little bit scary, maybe some weeks, but with some good
00:52:36
matchups coming up. Josh Allen is still a guy I
00:52:38
would go after. Yeah, you're down to the last
00:52:41
two bid cycles. We were looking in our league,
00:52:44
Jizz and I were talking in the Patreon, our shrewdness listener
00:52:49
league. The top tip guy has 172, I think
00:52:53
it was, and then everybody else is under like 50, so it's time
00:52:59
for a fire sale. You should be thrilled because
00:53:03
guys that were going for 200 will now go for like 40 or 30.
00:53:10
Whole bunch of nothing and you should be. 50 bucks you can
00:53:14
outbid everybody. Yeah, yeah.
00:53:18
So you should be down to the point now where you only need
00:53:21
one or two guys. Maybe you don't need anybody.
00:53:24
Maybe you can use your fab to block somebody else from getting
00:53:27
that running back that they need or something.
00:53:30
And just kind of, you know, go over and above to to keep the
00:53:36
low man on the totem pole, the low man on the totem pole.
00:53:39
But if you do need a guy, if you do need someone like a Kyron
00:53:44
Williams or an A chain, if you're lucky enough to be
00:53:47
bidding on a chain this week, he's still going to have a
00:53:51
really high floor in most weeks. DeAndre Swift. 50 bucks.
00:53:56
Yeah, right. Yeah.
00:53:59
Guys like DeAndre Swift I would probably shy away from.
00:54:02
Yeah, you don't want, frankly, don't bid on anybody that's not
00:54:05
a top eight player. And you can make your own list
00:54:08
of whatever you think that is. But if they aren't in that, you
00:54:11
don't need that and there's no reason.
00:54:13
Again, you can kind of do a little.
00:54:15
If they have like $12.00 left and you know they're hurting and
00:54:18
they got bye week, there's injuries all right, You can't do
00:54:22
a spite one. But don't hurt your team and
00:54:24
definitely don't spend money that you can get a good player
00:54:27
with. So you should be buying all
00:54:29
talent, all diamonds right now. You do have one, you know, after
00:54:34
this week you got one bid cycle left there.
00:54:36
You can do a little bit of game gaming among your the remaining
00:54:41
teams and am I going, you know, am I spending my last 50 this
00:54:45
week or am I on a hold 45 of it and see if I can luck out next
00:54:50
week with one more team going out.
00:54:52
So there's a little bit of gamesmanship that goes on these
00:54:55
last couple weeks and it's more about the teams that are left
00:54:59
and who they need and who's got the most fab all that kind of
00:55:04
stuff. So it's really interesting.
00:55:05
I think this is one of the most fun mid cycles throughout the
00:55:09
whole season. I think week week 1 is a really
00:55:12
interesting one and then these last two I think are the.
00:55:15
Paranoia Buy of $1000. Yeah, yeah, right.
00:55:20
Paranoia Week. Those are by far the three most
00:55:23
interesting weeks to me as far as bidding in your guillotine
00:55:28
leagues. So yeah, spend your money.
00:55:32
You can't take it with you. You only get two chances at it
00:55:35
to get that's right, that last guy you need.
00:55:38
So get it done. The other thing to think about
00:55:40
on this last one last nugget for you, because there aren't a lot
00:55:44
of fab dollars left. The other thing to think about
00:55:47
is you can pick up a lot of like hole fillers Yeah, if you're on
00:55:52
that waiver wire right after the bid cycle processes.
00:55:56
So the bone yard, as we call it, yeah, there's, there's good
00:56:00
players in the bone yard right now because it's, it's a, you
00:56:04
know, rosters are short, rosters are short.
00:56:08
So you can pick somebody up if you don't have any money, it
00:56:11
doesn't mean you can't still maneuver.
00:56:13
If you need somebody, you could probably find a guy.
00:56:15
So think about that. Yeah, you're in the final six.
00:56:18
There's going to be some good stuff left.
00:56:20
But all right, let's speak to the guys in the Boneyard that
00:56:22
can help you out. Let's spin it over to Chisholm
00:56:25
to give us some sleeper. Sleeper sleeper.
00:56:28
It's time for shrewdness Sleeper.
00:56:30
So we hit 2 out of 3 this week. We hit with Mooney, who got you
00:56:36
16 points and we hit with Wilson, who decks and Pruitt.
00:56:41
We're talking about having 10 catches versus Jacksonville with
00:56:44
21 points, which brought our total for the year.
00:56:47
If you stayed with us to 31%, just slightly under what our
00:56:53
goal is, is 33%, the hidden 31% of guys who have very, very low
00:56:59
ownership is pretty good. Yep.
00:57:01
And we feel good about that. So no more sleepers for the
00:57:04
year. We are gonna do another round
00:57:07
though of shrewdness Spuds. So last week in Spuds we hit two
00:57:14
of three. We gave you Jameson Williams who
00:57:17
put up a big goose egg. They gave you that one Kamara
00:57:23
Pruitt gave you, who gave you a 3.5.
00:57:26
So hopefully you guys benched those guys.
00:57:28
I gave you Ashton Genti. So hopefully you bid that for
00:57:31
any time touchdown because I'm now 11:50 on my my spuds scoring
00:57:38
touchdowns say that slowly, which is amazing at right 11:50.
00:57:45
That's a pretty good hit rate. And if I, I think, I don't know,
00:57:50
I think it's around 80 some percent if I'm correct, yeah.
00:57:54
So spuds, you're just a Midas touch.
00:57:56
I have the Midas touch. So for the year, we are 33% on
00:58:00
our spud rate. We've got 3 spuds to avoid this
00:58:05
week. And these are guys that are
00:58:07
owned by greater than 90% of leagues and we're saying they're
00:58:11
going to get below 13 points. So this is these are folks you
00:58:14
want to avoid this week. Pruitt, why don't you start us
00:58:18
out? Yeah, So Dallas, he's playing
00:58:23
Kansas City, like we talked about earlier there on a short
00:58:26
week. Javonte Williams has been pretty
00:58:29
good this year for Dallas, right?
00:58:32
He's run the ball well. Dallas is scoring a lot of
00:58:34
points. They're leaning on their run
00:58:36
game a little bit. Dallas is, you know, primarily a
00:58:40
passing offense. But anyway, the Chiefs have
00:58:44
shown time and time again this year that they can shut down a
00:58:48
running back. So him and I don't see him, even
00:58:53
if he does score, I still think he may not get you to 13 points
00:58:57
because I just don't see him getting more than about 50 yards
00:59:00
rushing, maybe 60 and then one or two catches.
00:59:04
So I think they're going to have to, I think Dallas is going to
00:59:07
have to rely on bigger plays because I think Bags is going to
00:59:13
bring it this week. Keep the pressure high.
00:59:16
Yeah, I agree, Kansas. City Rush Stevens is really
00:59:20
good. Dex, how are you thinking?
00:59:23
So I'm going to Carolina and Rico Dowdell.
00:59:26
Who's been a very nice player for a lot of fantasy owners out
00:59:29
there this season. Basically, taking the the ball
00:59:33
away from Shuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdell has had a lot of big
00:59:36
weeks, but this week they're going to be hosting the Los
00:59:39
Angeles Rams in that very stout defense, which is number one in
00:59:44
points allowed only at 16 a game.
00:59:48
So that tends to think you're not going to see a lot of
00:59:50
touchdowns from Carolina. Again, watching Carolina is the
00:59:53
reason to think there won't be a lot of touchdowns from Carolina
00:59:55
too. But Rico O'Donnell, I think, is
00:59:58
going to have tough sledding against a very tough defense.
01:00:02
And even though they're at home and the weather shouldn't be
01:00:04
that bad in Carolina, I just think the Rams are going to shut
01:00:07
him down because he's key focus. You make Bryce Young throw over
01:00:10
you, which they have not been able to do very well, which
01:00:13
leads to them getting behind likely against the Rams takes
01:00:17
doubly without even more because they still have Cuba Hubbard in
01:00:20
for when they're coming from behind and throwing the balls in
01:00:22
the flat. So I think that's going to limit
01:00:24
Rico Dowdle this week. So I see him as my spud Chism.
01:00:28
close this out. I like it.
01:00:30
I am going to go with. DeAndre Swift.
01:00:34
DeAndre Swift is going to Philly.
01:00:37
I hate running against Philly's defense.
01:00:40
It's really good. I think Swift, who had is coming
01:00:44
off of an epically bad week, is going to have another epically
01:00:48
bad week. So if you've got him on your
01:00:50
team like I do, I would suggest Benchingham this week in favour
01:00:56
of almost anyone else besides Williams or Dowdell because they
01:01:01
are facing a really, really good Philly defense and I don't think
01:01:06
it's gonna go well for DeAndre at Philly.
01:01:10
So our spuds for this week, Javonte Williams versus Kansas
01:01:14
City, Rico Dowdell versus the Rams, and DeAndre Swift at
01:01:18
Philly. Don't stardom unless you
01:01:21
absolutely have to. And also bet on DeAndre Swift.
01:01:25
Score, touchdown. OK, so should we talk about
01:01:30
bets? Phillips, we have a huge weekend
01:01:33
of betting, so we're going to give you 2.
01:01:36
That's right, not just one, but two.
01:01:37
OK, wait, wait. Before we go to bets, let me
01:01:39
tell you this real quick, guys, let me tell you this real quick.
01:01:42
If you're not following us on social media, you're missing out
01:01:45
on our single game parlays. And those power parlays have
01:01:50
been really good this year. And we just hit another one last
01:01:54
night, 3 for three on our power parlays on Monday Night
01:01:58
Football. You bought a yacht.
01:02:00
If you followed us, you need to check that out.
01:02:05
We will be doing, we do those for any single island games.
01:02:08
We call them any times a game is being played and it's by itself
01:02:12
without any other competing games.
01:02:14
We bet a single game parlay, there's six of those.
01:02:16
It's Hawaii. Six of those.
01:02:18
We got a lot of islands, baby. We got the whole, we got a lot
01:02:20
of. Islands, this is going to be
01:02:22
great. So we got 6.
01:02:23
Island Games. So if you're not following us on
01:02:25
social, follow us because you're going to get 6 opportunities to
01:02:28
make big money if you bet them like we do.
01:02:30
Some people get on social media and they're like oh you only got
01:02:33
two of three. You're right, we only got two of
01:02:34
three and technically it's a loss when you're parlaying 3.
01:02:37
However, if you do like we do, you bet them as individual bets
01:02:40
and then you bet it as a. Parlay and when you do.
01:02:42
That you can come out ahead a little bit.
01:02:44
So I would suggest you do that if you're going to follow us,
01:02:47
but you could just go in for the parlay because if you're doing
01:02:49
that, you're doing all right for the season because we've hit a
01:02:51
lot of three for three. So check out the socials, we'll
01:02:56
we'll post those usually at least an hour before the game.
01:02:59
We try to get them up there as soon as we can, but about an
01:03:01
hour before the game we'll have them up there.
01:03:03
You can follow us. And then we have our standard
01:03:05
game picks that we do every week.
01:03:07
We usually pick three games this week though, because we're, it
01:03:10
is the season of giving and we feel like giving.
01:03:13
We're going to give you 6 picks this week, this week because you
01:03:16
need to bet on the Thursday, Friday games and then you need
01:03:18
to bet on the Sunday games. So we're going to give you 2
01:03:20
rounds of bets this week and extra, extra fun for you to keep
01:03:25
you entertained whenever your uncle is wanting to talk
01:03:28
politics and you, you're really trying to check out, you want to
01:03:32
pay more attention to the game, You can say, hey, you know what?
01:03:35
Instead, Uncle Dave, I got some. I got some money.
01:03:38
Riding on riding on this game. Dave, let's talk about that.
01:03:41
So let's start out this, oh, last Week, 2 for three again.
01:03:47
So we gave you Sensi plus 7 1/2 versus New England Cha Ching, we
01:03:51
gave you Atlanta money line. That's right, super juicy versus
01:03:55
New Orleans. Cha Ching from Mr. Pruitt And
01:03:58
then we gave you Minnesota plus 6 1/2.
01:04:01
Yeah, maybe that didn't hit, but that's all right.
01:04:03
Dexter was on a hot streak and now he just had to come down to
01:04:06
earth. Now he's resetting.
01:04:08
So for the season we are 56%, which is in the money.
01:04:13
So if you are are following us on these, you're in the money
01:04:17
for the season and we're going to give you some more.
01:04:20
So let's start with the Thursday Friday games.
01:04:24
Let's start with Mr. Dexter. What do you have is your stone
01:04:28
cold lead pipe lock for Thursday.
01:04:31
All right. I am looking at a defensive.
01:04:33
Struggle with Kansas City at Dallas on Thanksgiving.
01:04:37
It's going to be giving of defensive flair so I think we're
01:04:40
going to see two better defenses.
01:04:42
Kansas City's been good all season for the most part and
01:04:45
Dallas, like I said, they have 6 new starters on defense and they
01:04:48
look like it and Quinnen Williams is coming and locked
01:04:51
down that defensive line. It's harder to run.
01:04:54
The passing game has not been really favorable either.
01:04:57
It used to be an absolute sieve back in the secondary for
01:05:01
Dallas. Now they got a couple
01:05:03
linebackers back, a safety back corners.
01:05:05
So they just they're just a better unit.
01:05:08
So I think we have two better defensive units. 52 1/2 points
01:05:11
is a lot with two good defenses. Can it go over it?
01:05:15
Sure can. But I see the under in this one.
01:05:17
Under 52 1/2 Kansas City, Dallas for Thursday.
01:05:22
Lock it up on a short week too. That's a good, that's a good
01:05:25
one. On a short week, that's right,
01:05:28
tired legs. Tired, tired legs like sunders.
01:05:31
So let's turn to you, Mr. Prue. Speaking of the Thursday Friday
01:05:36
games, what do you have your eye on?
01:05:38
Yeah, so not going far from that Games.
01:05:41
I like Kansas City. I think they will come in and I
01:05:45
think they got a little bit of momentum now.
01:05:47
I know Dallas just won a a good overtime game too, but I think
01:05:52
Kansas City's got all the right pieces.
01:05:54
Some things are starting to fall into place.
01:05:58
I like them to go into. Dallas and.
01:06:01
When The thing is the line right now is -3 1/2, but it's swinging
01:06:08
toward -3 and that is a key number for those of you that are
01:06:13
not super familiar with sports betting. 3 is you know the
01:06:19
difference between a push and that 3 1/2 the hook can totally
01:06:26
hose you and hose last. That's the second.
01:06:31
Field goals will take your money.
01:06:34
So if you can hold out, it looks like the the trend is leaning
01:06:39
toward a -, 3 line here soon. It's -3 1/2 right now.
01:06:45
Not super stoked about that given all the chief struggles in
01:06:49
the red zone. But I think if it gets to -3 I'm
01:06:52
going to hop all over that because I think they can start
01:06:56
winning some close games like we've seen in the past.
01:07:01
Last year, they couldn't lose. This year, they couldn't win.
01:07:04
Now they finally got a close game win.
01:07:08
And so things could kind of regress toward the the mean
01:07:12
there. So I look to them to start
01:07:16
winning some more close games and eat their way into the
01:07:18
playoffs. I like it the.
01:07:22
Dallas defense is still. Tough in that secondary and so
01:07:26
Mahomes could have a good time there.
01:07:28
I like it. All right, so I'm going to give
01:07:31
you another under. If you've paid attention to me
01:07:36
in the past, I'm a big fan of divisional unders.
01:07:39
There's a lot of familiarity there and I'm also a big fan of
01:07:45
of cold, wet weather unders and this fits both of those bills.
01:07:49
Cincinnati, Baltimore, it is going to be Joe Burrows first
01:07:55
game back. So I think there's a little rust
01:07:58
there for him going to be a little off maybe on his timing.
01:08:03
We've seen Baltimore's offense has sputtered quite a bit.
01:08:08
I think passing is going to be difficult and you've got T
01:08:10
Higgins out for this game on the Cincinnati side.
01:08:13
So I think points are going to be a little bit harder to come
01:08:15
by. I do a little fear of the Derek
01:08:18
Henry factor. I like Derek Henry in this
01:08:21
matchup a lot against Cincinnati's defense, so he
01:08:23
could run for a lot of yards, but I don't think it's going
01:08:28
over that 52 1/2. So I like Cincy Baltimore under
01:08:31
52 1/2. Lock it up.
01:08:33
So the three for our Thursday, Friday games are Cincy,
01:08:36
Baltimore under 52 1/2, Kansas City, Dallas under 52 1/2.
01:08:41
And while you're at it, book that Kansas City -3 by the
01:08:44
points or find the book that has it at -3 and you're going to win
01:08:48
all three of those. So those are your three.
01:08:51
Now let's turn to the Sunday slate.
01:08:54
So we look at Sunday, you're you're recovering, you're having
01:08:58
your leftover Turkey sandwiches and you still want to watch a
01:09:01
little more NFL football before you got to go back into work
01:09:04
before you get those Sunday scary's.
01:09:06
Why not win a little extra money?
01:09:08
And we're going to give you 3 games to do that with.
01:09:11
Let's start out with you Mr. Pruitt.
01:09:13
Who do you like in the Sundays late?
01:09:16
OK, can't believe I'm saying it, but Tennessee.
01:09:19
At Jacksonville is showing some signs of life.
01:09:23
Cam Ward played pretty well this week and they've they've
01:09:27
actually been those losses these last few weeks.
01:09:30
So I like them actually to stay within 6 1/2 points, which is
01:09:35
what the line is currently. I'm liking, hate to say it, but
01:09:40
I'm liking Tennessee plus 6 1/2 against Jacksonville this week.
01:09:44
I like it. We talked about Tennessee
01:09:45
showing that fight. Jacksonville being a little
01:09:47
reckless with the ball. I think it's a good, it's a good
01:09:51
line. Tennessee plus 6 1/2 Dex.
01:09:53
Where are you looking? All right, so I am sticking with
01:09:57
the unders this. Weekend when we have some
01:09:59
snowstorms going across the upper Midwest.
01:10:01
So San Francisco traveling to Cleveland.
01:10:04
I like the under 37 1/2 in that game.
01:10:08
Cleveland with Shadour Sanders, I think they're going to be fun
01:10:12
to watch. I don't think they're going to
01:10:14
be fun to watch score. I think there's not going to be
01:10:17
too much scoring there. San Francisco has also had their
01:10:20
own issues, and it's going to be hard to put up a lot of points
01:10:23
on Cleveland's defense. What could potentially be a
01:10:26
sloppy, snowy game. And frankly, would You can't
01:10:31
feel too confident with Brock Purdy throwing 3 interceptions
01:10:35
last night. He just looks like he might be a
01:10:38
little off now. That could change in a hurry.
01:10:41
But The thing is, Christian McCaffrey hasn't been able to
01:10:44
run the ball that well, so they're going to have to do a
01:10:46
bunch of screen passes. They're going to have to extend
01:10:48
the run that way. I just think it's going to be a
01:10:50
slow, soupy game with Quinshaw Judkins running a bunch of CMC
01:10:55
because this is the last week before the bye week for San
01:10:57
Francisco. They're probably again trying to
01:11:00
get everybody through it, grind it all out and get that win and
01:11:03
then go into the bye week. So San Francisco, Cleveland
01:11:06
under 37 1/2 and what should be a low scoring affair.
01:11:10
Yeah, Cleveland Unders are always a.
01:11:12
Good bet this time of year we're going to go to another under.
01:11:17
We're under heavy this week, but I like it a lot because like
01:11:21
Dexter set of weather, this one is Buffalo, Pittsburgh under 47
01:11:28
1/2. I like this for a couple
01:11:29
reasons. One, it's going to be cold and
01:11:33
wet. 2 Buffalo's offense has not looked terrific lately as we
01:11:41
talked about and Mike Tomlin has a general knack for keeping
01:11:46
games close like this. You don't see Pittsburgh getting
01:11:51
blown out a lot even though they don't have nearly the talent of
01:11:53
Buffalo this year. I don't think they're going to
01:11:55
let this get to be a blowout. I think they're going to keep it
01:11:57
close and I'll be honest, I don't think Pittsburgh is going
01:11:59
to score a lot. So I think the way they're going
01:12:01
to do that is on defense. I see this game somewhere around
01:12:05
21 to 17 ish, probably a Buffalo win 2117, but I don't think
01:12:12
you're going to get a ton of scoring out of either of them.
01:12:15
And I love under 47 1/2. So lock up Buffalo, Pittsburgh,
01:12:21
under 47 1/2, San Francisco, Cleveland under 37 1/2 and take
01:12:26
6 1/2 points as Tennessee plays Jacksonville.
01:12:30
We just gave you 6 winners. You're going to be able to go
01:12:33
out and buy. You know who knows 5678 turkeys?
01:12:39
After this, you don't need another yacht and get yourself
01:12:43
something. Nice.
01:12:43
Yeah, right. Donate to charity, whatever you.
01:12:46
Want to do? Right, Christmas.
01:12:48
Yeah. Absolutely, but we have 6 by
01:12:50
somebody. Else a yacht.
01:12:51
So we got 6 Island games coming up, so three Thursday, one
01:12:54
Friday. Look for those Sunday night,
01:12:55
Monday night as well, so we have a bunch of island parlays out
01:12:59
there as well. So come check those out again
01:13:01
bet them individually if you want that's fine.
01:13:03
We're we're hitting at a good rate.
01:13:04
We'll post it up on our shrewdness page dot beam dot LY.
01:13:09
We'll have that out by end of the week.
01:13:11
So we got a bunch of those up too.
01:13:12
Absolutely. All right.
01:13:14
Terrific. Anything.
01:13:15
Else we need to hit or let's just get right to the Turkey.
01:13:18
And holidays. And everything else.
01:13:20
Let's eat, folks. Let's eat.
01:13:22
Enjoy the. Family this weekend boys enjoy
01:13:24
the football. Enjoy our new yachts that we'll
01:13:27
be able to put in the lake next summer and spring with.
01:13:30
That's right, that's hitting and parlays hitting just rain and
01:13:32
gold coins upon us. It's like Bitcoin, which drops
01:13:37
our parlays. Always come up, baby, it's good.
01:13:39
That's right, let's do it. Have a great week.
01:13:41
Keep your head about you this weekend.
01:13:43
Make sure you set your lineups because again, with these three
01:13:46
games on Thursday, one on Friday, don't sleep through with
01:13:49
the Turkey and miss putting a starter in.
01:13:51
Check the line UPS an hour before the game time, make sure
01:13:54
there's not a late scratch on a warm up.
01:13:56
So be smart, be through it and most importantly, stay shrewd
01:14:02
till next week.