Football season is finally on the doorstep, and the Shrewdness crew — Dex, Pru, and Chiz — is done waiting. Before the real games start counting, the crew put their necks on the line with a full slate of predictions: every division winner, both Super Bowl matchups, and the major awards. Less fantasy talk this time, more straight football — though as Chiz points out, the two aren't as separate as you'd think. "If these teams are going to do good, then they're probably going to have players that are worth having too."
First, a quick thank-you: a lot of new faces have joined the Shrewdness lately, and the crew is grateful for it. Shrewdness Pro also officially launched this week, and the crew is already tweaking the tool behind the scenes after a run of preseason injuries (Ashton Jeanty, Trevion Henderson, Kenneth Walker, Jeremiah Love, Breece Hall, Chuba Hubbard, and Kyle Monangai all forced updates). A full Pro membership walkthrough is coming as a standalone short in the next week or so.
How'd We Do Last Year?
Before diving into 2026, the crew graded their 2025 predictions — and by their own admission, they nailed almost every division. The one miss: Kansas City. "We didn't project that Mahomes could tear his ACL and that the tackles were going to be horrible," Chiz admits. Lesson learned. This year, they say, they've got it.
AFC Division Winners
AFC East: Buffalo. All three hosts agree — Josh Allen and a new offensive mind in Joe Brady get the Bills back on top, helped by DJ Moore's arrival and the steady, unglamorous production of Khalil Shakir. New England is the clear second, even with a tougher schedule than last year's league-easiest slate. The Jets and Miami, per the crew, aren't winning much of anything. "It's not close," says Pru.
AFC North: Baltimore. Chiz leads the charge for the Ravens, pointing to Lamar Jackson, a new offensive coordinator in Declan Doyle (poached off the Bears' staff), and Jesse Minter — the Chargers' well-regarded defensive coordinator — now running Baltimore's D. Dex agrees, calling Baltimore's roster the deepest in the division top to bottom and predicting the defense, anchored by Kyle Hamilton, carries them more than the offense does. Pru likes Cincinnati more than she has in years but still gives Baltimore the edge on overall talent. Fair warning from the group: with Aaron Rodgers (42), Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Joe Burrow all in this division, "somebody's going down in the first three weeks."
AFC South: Jacksonville, according to Pru, who says she slept on the Jaguars last year and won't make that mistake twice — she likes Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne's understudy, and a well-coached, well-rounded roster. Dex and Chiz both go the other way with Houston, leaning almost entirely on a stacked defensive front (Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr., Henry To'oTo'o, Derek Stingley Jr.) to cover for what they see as league-average quarterback play from C.J. Stroud. Tennessee gets a nod as the division's sneaky riser behind new head coach Brian Callahan and defensive-minded staff, even if nobody picks the Titans to actually win it. The Colts land last across the board — Dex isn't buying a scrambling quarterback's return from Achilles surgery, and Chiz points out three of Indy's top four receiving options are hurt to start camp.
AFC West: split decision. Dex goes against his own franchise, picking the Chargers — Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert, and a stacked-if-healthy offensive line get the nod, along with a defense he thinks now outranks Kansas City's. Chiz isn't having it, comparing Dex to Charlie Brown chasing a football the Chargers yank away every August, and takes the Chiefs. Pru makes the case first: it's not how Kansas City starts, it's how they finish — their defense has been mediocre through the first eight or ten weeks the last three years and then locked in down the stretch, and this time it's paired with a healthier, retooled offense under Eric Bieniemy. Chiz agrees, adding he simply can't bet against Mahomes and Travis Kelce together. Denver's 14-win 2025 season gets written off as pure one-score-game luck (the crew claims Denver won seven one-score games last year), and nobody's ready to trust Bo Nix over Herbert or Mahomes.
NFC Division Winners
NFC East: split between the Eagles and Cowboys. Pru takes Philadelphia — she doesn't even like them, but calls them the NFL's most maddening bunch of good-enough game managers, pointing to one of the league's easier schedules and a defense that should carry a still-loaded skill group even after losing A.J. Brown's target share to attrition. Dex and Chiz both go Dallas, calling this the year the Cowboys' roster finally has no excuses left — Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, and a defense retooled around Quinnen Williams and rookie safety Caleb Downs. Chiz's one worry: Dallas's depth chart gets thin fast if the starters get hurt. Washington gets a "still a year away" nod, and the Giants are seen as too volatile at quarterback (and too banged-up under center) to contend yet, even with John Harbaugh now running the building.
NFC North: the toughest division to call. Dex backs Minnesota, betting a full, healthy season from Kyler Murray — who's hit 3,500 passing yards and 400 rushing yards in four separate seasons — turns a defense that was already good into a division winner. Chiz goes with Detroit, leaning on health returning to a defense that was gutted by injuries all of last season, plus Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jahmyr Gibbs still forming what he calls the best top-to-bottom offense in the division. Pru takes Chicago, pointing to Ben Johnson's arrival, a retooled offensive line, and a young skill group (Colston Loveland, Luther Burden, D.J. Moore-era holdover DeAndre Swift) she thinks turns into one of the league's most fun offenses to watch. All three agree Green Bay is live but a notch behind, mostly because of a thin secondary and Micah Parsons opening the year on the shelf.
NFC South: everybody agrees it's the league's weakest group. Pru breaks from the pack and takes Atlanta, betting on Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and a hot four-game finish to last season carrying into a new year under new coaching. Dex and Chiz both go Tampa Bay, calling Baker Mayfield the division's clear best quarterback and pointing to a defensive line upgrade (a re-signed Vita Vea, rookie Rueben Bain Jr.) as the difference-maker in what they expect to be, at best, a nine- or ten-win division winner.
NFC West: this year's true powerhouse division. All three hosts land on the Rams, pointing to a defense built around Myles Garrett and a secondary import from Kansas City (Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson) alongside a still-productive Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams. The one shared caveat: Stafford's health is the whole season. If he goes down, Pru says the division tips to Seattle behind Sam Darnold. The 49ers get a "puncher's chance" nod from Chiz if Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, and an aging receiver corps all stay upright at once — a lot of ifs, by his own admission.
Super Bowl Matchups
Two out of three hosts land on the same Super Bowl entirely, just picking different winners:
Dex: Cowboys vs. Ravens, Baltimore wins it — Lamar Jackson gets his first ring.
Chiz: Rams vs. Ravens, Baltimore wins it.
Pru: Rams vs. Chiefs, taking Kansas City if a healthy Mahomes shows up early.
Vegas, for what it's worth, has the Rams beating Baltimore.
Awards Predictions
MVP: Pru takes Josh Allen, betting on a chip-on-the-shoulder season after last year's finish. Dex takes Dak Prescott, betting stats-plus-wins math carries him to votes. Chiz takes Lamar Jackson, calling him a perennial MVP-caliber player who finally gets full offensive support.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Dex likes Carnell Tate in Tennessee's revamped passing game. Pru likes Deshaun Stribling in San Francisco, citing a clear path to targets behind an aging receiver room. Chiz takes Jadarian Price in Seattle — a fellow Notre Dame guy, he admits — betting Price wins the touches over an unhealthy Zach Charbonnet. All three pass on the actual Vegas favorite, Jeremiah Love, over Tennessee's brutal early schedule, an ankle issue, and an offense they're not sold on. ("The Ashton Jeanty of 2026," per Pru.)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Pru takes Sonny Styles. Dex takes Rueben Bain Jr., betting double teams on Vita Vea clear him one-on-one matchups all year. Chiz takes his "hometown" pick, Cowboys safety Caleb Downs.
Offensive Player of the Year: Dex predicts a bounce-back year for Justin Jefferson now that Minnesota has stable quarterback play. Pru takes Seattle's JSN. Chiz takes Ja'Marr Chase, arguing he produces at an elite level regardless of who's throwing him the ball. Vegas' favorite for this one is Jahmyr Gibbs.
Defensive Player of the Year: Dex and Pru both land on Myles Garrett — Vegas agrees too. Chiz broke from the group with his own pick, Will Anderson Jr., but couldn't fully argue against the field: "It just seems too easy, doesn't it? ... I may actually put five bucks on it."
The Big Takeaway
However these predictions age, the crew's bigger point stands: strength of schedule and health swing divisions as much as raw talent does, and this offseason's quarterback depth chart is loaded with landmines — Rodgers, Watson, Burrow, and Lamar Jackson are all one bad snap away from changing a division race. Keep that in mind heading into your own drafts this week.
Free, injury-updated rankings are live now at theshrewdness.beam.ly — use them before you draft. And if you want the tool the Shrewdness crew actually leans on all season — weekly rankings by position, projected FAAB bids, and the best bets that have kept them in the money the last two years — Shrewdness Pro is $8/month or $25/year. The blade doesn't wait for anybody.
Stay shrewd, everybody.