The blade doesn't wait for your studs to figure it out — it eliminates whoever scores the fewest points every single week, full stop. So while the rest of the fantasy world is still arguing tiers, guillotine drafters need to know exactly which late-round picks can save a season and which popular names are quietly a landmine. Chiz sat this one out, but Pru and Dex brought in a familiar face — Reid, who helped carry a previous episode's Minnesota Twins breakdown and is currently grinding through roughly two dozen fantasy drafts this summer — to run through booms and busts at every position ahead of the 2026 guillotine draft season.
Full individual and group rankings from this preview series are posted at theshrewdness.beam.ly, with the complete top-200 master list landing mid-August. Here's every value pick, deep sleeper, and bust the crew flagged this week.
Quarterback: Wait, Then Pounce
With Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson locking up the only two truly "safe" first-two-round quarterbacks, the rest of the position turns into a value hunt — which is exactly where this episode lived.
Tyler Shough, Saints (Pru's pick) — Pru is targeting Shough as a true late-round streamer after a strong second half of last season. New Orleans brought in Travis Etienne to pair with Alvin Kamara in the backfield, still has Chris Olave, and drafted rookie Jordan Tyson — enough weapons for an offense Pru and Reid both expect to be playing from behind and throwing often. "I think he could be an adequate quarterback if you're looking for a late-round guy that can fill out your team," Pru said, and Reid backed the whole Saints offense as a sleeper unit.
Cam Ward, Titans (Reid's pick) — Ward is currently going as QB25, and Reid thinks that's a full tier too low. "I wouldn't necessarily say this is gonna be your number one guy, but if you have a guy that is solid, not great, I think Cam Ward would be a great pick to give you some upside and a high ceiling," Reid said, pointing to a deeper receiving corps around him this year, new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, and a reputation as one of the hardest workers in his draft class. Dex's addition: with a new defensive-minded head coach fresh off a year studying under Kyle Shanahan, Tennessee's talent — especially a genuinely deep receiving room — finally has real coaching behind it. Reid's call: "I wouldn't be shocked if he's a top-12 QB."
Kyler Murray, Vikings (Dex's pick) — Dex's boldest QB take of the show. Murray is currently going as low as the 18th quarterback off the board while he battles JJ McCarthy for the starting job, but Dex isn't buying the discount: "It's honestly the best situation Kyler Murray's ever been in." Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and rookie Juwan Jennings give him arguably the best top-three receiver room in the league, T.J. Hoeckenson adds a safety valve at tight end, and Kevin O'Connell has a track record of maximizing what his quarterback does best — in Murray's case, extending plays and scrambling. "If he's eighteenth and you get him at the eighteenth quarterback off the board, I think you're gonna way outperform that. I think he'd be top ten easy this year," Dex said. Reid's side note: whoever loses the QB competition likely won't stick around Minnesota, with Carson Wentz penciled in as the real backup.
Bust: Jackson Dart, Giants — Reid's target for the episode. Dart is going in the top 10 at the position on most boards, but Reid isn't touching him: "Regardless of their talent, aren't gonna last... their career is gonna be shortened if they don't change their mindset," he said, grouping Dart's helmet-first running style with Cam Skattebo's own durability red flags. With Malik Nabers still working back from injury and no proven second receiving option, Dart leans heavily on scrambling — exactly the kind of exposure that turns one bad hit into a guillotine-ending week. "I'm gonna have zero percent ownership of Jackson Dart this year on all twenty-five teams," Reid said flatly. Dex pushed back a little on the talent (Dart topped 20 points in every game but one last season) but agreed he's more volatile than his ranking suggests for this format specifically.
Running Back: Depth, Backfield Battles, and One Big Fade
TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots (Reid) — Going as low as RB24 on some boards despite closing last season on fire — three games over 28 points and only two sub-10 outings from Week 9 on. Reid thinks New England leaned on him down the stretch for a reason and expects a top-15 season, "if things go right, top ten."
Bhayshul Tuten, Jaguars (Pru) — With Etienne now in New Orleans, Tuten inherits the Jacksonville backfield outright, and Pru likes the ceiling on a Jaguars offense she's called sneaky-good for two years running. The wrinkle, raised by Dex: Jacksonville also brought in Chris Rodriguez Jr., a Liam Coen favorite from their Washington days, muddying exactly how the touches split early — though Pru noted Rodriguez is currently banged up entering camp.
Jaylen Warren, Steelers (Pru) — Pittsburgh finished second in the NFL in running back receptions last year behind only San Francisco, and with Kenneth Gainwell gone, Pru expects Warren to soak up a bigger share of that target volume. Reid agreed, with one caveat: committee-mate Trey Dowdle is "a boom-or-bust guy" who tends to steal a month's worth of value in flashes, so own both if you can.
Rashod White, Commanders (Dex) — A free-agent add from Tampa Bay who's reportedly been the clear RB1 all through OTAs and camp. Dex likes him as a three-down option who can pass-block and finish drives for a Washington offense he expects to bounce back with a healthy Jayden Daniels. "I think he's gonna do really well for that offense," Dex said, with Pru agreeing he's shown he can be trusted in a lead role wherever he's played.
J.K. Dobbins, Broncos (Dex) — The health questions are real, but so is the production: 772 yards on the ground in nine games last year (5.0 yards per carry) behind one of the league's best offensive lines. Currently going as the 33rd running back off the board, which both Dex and Pru think is far too low for a clear starting job in a good offense. Reid's one flag: if Dobbins does go down, he thinks rookie Jonah Coleman — not preseason breakout RJ Harvey — is the more likely three-down replacement.
David Montgomery, Texans (Dex) — Not even inside the top 20 running backs on most boards, which Dex called a mistake given Montgomery now owns the Houston backfield outright with no real competition beyond change-of-pace back Woody Marks. Reid agreed on the talent: "He's the thunder to [Jahmyr Gibbs'] lightning" in Detroit, and could be a top-15 back by year's end in a bigger role.
Deep sleeper: Keaton Mitchell, Chargers (Dex) — Back from a gruesome knee injury that once looked career-threatening, Mitchell reportedly still has his trademark breakaway speed — enough that new Chargers offense architect Mike McDaniel pushed hard to bring him in. Behind Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal on the depth chart, but a near-zero-cost bench stash worth monitoring in Weeks 1 and 2.
Bust: Devon Achane, Dolphins (Reid) — With Miami's receiving corps thin and Malik Willis at quarterback, Reid doesn't see enough around Achane to support a true workhorse role, and questions whether his frame holds up to a featured workload for 17 weeks. "I don't see him lasting the year," Reid said.
Bust: Breece Hall, Jets (Dex) — Currently going as RB16, a spot Dex would rather spend on J.K. Dobbins, DeAndre Swift, Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyon Henderson, Tuten, Montgomery, Dowdle, or Warren — all of them, in that order, ahead of Hall. The Jets offense simply doesn't have enough juice around him (Hall finished with 1,065 yards and only 4 touchdowns last year), and the backfield touches aren't guaranteed with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis both in the mix. "I will have zero teams with Breece Hall on them, guaranteed," Dex said.
Wide Receiver: New Homes and a Very Contested Top Bust
Josh Downs, Colts (Dex) — With Michael Pittman Jr. traded to Pittsburgh, Downs steps into the possession-receiver role opposite deep threat Alec Pierce, and Dex expects a jump to 7-9 targets a game as the new focal point of the passing game. Pru's counterpoint: rookie tight end Tyler Warren could siphon some of those redistributed targets before they reach Downs.
Juwan Jennings, Vikings (Dex) — The rookie slots in as Minnesota's clear number three behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and in a Kevin O'Connell offense that uses three-receiver sets often, both Dex and Reid see flex-worthy weeks even with the top two healthy. Reid's projection: 750-850 yards and six to eight touchdowns.
Ryan Flournoy, Cowboys (Dex) — A deep, late-round dart throw behind CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens on a Dallas offense that should move the ball freely behind Dak Prescott. Flournoy flashed when given opportunities late last season, and with Lamb's injury history, Pru noted the door could open fast.
Parker Washington, Jaguars (Reid) — Reid's favorite value target of the whole episode. Washington is going as low as WR37, but as the primary slot receiver in Liam Coen's slot-heavy scheme, he posted six games over 17 points after a Week 9 breakout. "When you're looking at guillotine, slot receivers are great because they have a high floor," Reid said. Free-agent addition Jacoby Meyers and a bounce-back Brian Thomas Jr. add competition, but Reid still expects Washington to lead the group in weekly consistency: "I think that's the guy — particularly in that offense."
Deep sleeper: Jalen McMillan, Buccaneers (Reid) — A former top recruit who's battled injuries (including a scary neck injury last year) but flashed 18 points in his second-to-last healthy game. Going as low as WR62 with a full normal offseason and expanded opportunity if Mike Evans' role shrinks, Reid called him "an obvious take" for a zero-risk, league-winning-upside dart throw late in drafts.
Jalen Waddle, Broncos (Pru) — Now in Denver opposite Courtland Sutton, on an offense Pru pointed out throws far more than its run-first reputation suggests. Currently going as WR22, Pru sees a path to Waddle solidifying himself as a true WR1 in a suddenly pass-heavy Broncos attack.
Deep sleeper: Jalen Coker, Panthers (Pru) — Currently WR51 after flashing as a sneaky number-two option behind Tetairoa McMillan late last season. Pru liked the route running and hands on tape and expects him to beat his current ADP comfortably.
Deepest sleeper: Christian Kirk, 49ers (Pru) — Buried on paper behind a stacked receiving room that includes Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, Kirk is going as low as WR93. Pru's case is pure opportunity cost: on a bench in Week 12, one injury in that room turns Kirk into a must-start overnight. "It might be worth a flyer — stash him on your bench for a few weeks and see what happens," Pru said, and Dex agreed Kittle's own injury history (more below) only raises Kirk's odds of relevance.
Bust watch: Rashee Rice (Chiefs) and Malik Nabers (Giants) — Reid — Reid's broader philosophy: guillotine punishes boom-or-bust profiles at the top of the position, and both Rice and Nabers carry exactly that kind of week-to-week variance despite going in the top 15-17 receivers off the board. "Those are guys that in maybe regular redraft, that's something you might want to dip your toe into. But in guillotine, don't mess with the guys that are gonna be either WR1 or WR80," Reid said. He's also lower than the field on Zay Flowers (Ravens) — a rare point of real disagreement, as Dex loves Flowers after his new contract and an expected Baltimore offense that leans more pass-heavy this year.
Bust: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks (Reid) — The most contested call of the episode. JSN led the league in receiving yards last year and is now a top-three receiver on draft boards (ADP 8 overall), but Reid isn't buying a repeat: "He had all-time efficiency numbers last year — like, all-time, in the last 30 years. That's not sustainable." Dex fired back with the schedule: JSN opens the season against a run of projected bottom-three pass defenses (Arizona twice, Washington, Las Vegas) and only faces two above-average units in the season's first two and a half months. Where you land probably depends on whether you trust talent or regression more — but it's exactly the kind of debate worth having before you spend a top-10 pick.
Deep sleeper: Tory Horton, Seahawks (Dex, agreed by Reid) — With JSN drawing all the attention, Horton's the forgotten name behind him — he flashed in real snaps last year before an injury and is thin enough on the depth chart (Cooper Kupp fading, Rashid Shaheed unproven as a true number two) that a bigger role is available if he stays healthy.
Tight End: A Thin Position With One Loud Disagreement
Bust: Juwan Johnson, Saints (Dex) — Johnson's career year last season was almost entirely a target-share mirage, according to Dex, and that share is about to get split three ways — rookie Jordan Tyson, free-agent add Noah Fant, and two pass-catching backs in Kamara and Etienne all cut into a role Johnson used to have almost entirely to himself. "I think he's gonna be a flop for his position that he's being taken," Dex said.
Bust: George Kittle, 49ers (Pru) — San Francisco has repeatedly played better when Kittle run-blocks for Christian McCaffrey rather than runs full routes, and with more receiving firepower added around him this year, Pru thinks the staff leans further into that trade-off — on top of his real injury history the last two seasons. "He may be relied on less as a route runner and more as a run blocker," Pru said.
Value: Isaiah Likely, Ravens (Reid) — A big new contract and John Harbaugh's trust make Likely Reid's top tight end value target this episode.
Deep sleeper: Gunnar Helm, Titans (Reid) — Tied directly to the Cam Ward breakout case from earlier in the show — more weapons and better coaching around a young offense tends to lift everyone in it, tight end included.
Bust: Colston Loveland, Bears (Reid) — Reid owns Loveland in multiple dynasty leagues and likes the long-term outlook, but he's calling out the current ADP (48 overall, TE3) as too aggressive off a small rookie-year sample. "I think he could be top three. I think he also could be outside the top ten," Reid said — exactly the kind of range guillotine drafters should be wary of paying up for early. The group's rough take on where the position gets thin: McBride, Bowers, Loveland, Warren, Fannin, Kraft, Pitts, and LaPorta make up a clean top eight — after that, per Reid, "you're really dropping off."
The Big Takeaway
None of these calls are about who's the best player over a full healthy season — they're about who protects your floor and who's one bad Sunday from getting your team chopped. That's why a possession slot receiver like Parker Washington gets more guillotine love than his ADP suggests, why a scrambling quarterback with no proven second read like Jackson Dart draws a hard fade even with real talent, and why "he's on a stacked depth chart, but one injury away" is a legitimate late-round strategy at running back and receiver alike. Get the full individual rankings, group averages, and the complete top-200 master list — landing mid-August — at theshrewdness.beam.ly. Use the guillotine-specific rankings, not a generic ADP list — as Dex put it on the show, "the lists are different... ADP lists don't mean anything" once eliminations start.
Listen to the full episode, "Shrewdness Guillotine Fantasy Football: Booms and Busts," wherever you get your podcasts, and follow The Shrewdness on Spotify and YouTube for the rest of the 2026 draft season.
Stay shrewd, everybody.
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