October 29, 2026
Everybody survived Week 7, and for once nobody lost a head in the making of this episode. Dex called it a win, Chiz rang the bell ("when the bell rings, an angel gets its wings"), and then we got to the segment the Shrewdness has been asking for: the end gamers. These are the players who will carry you through the final weeks of your guillotine league, and the ones you should be bidding on now, or waiting on, before your FAB runs dry. We also covered the Week 7 injuries, the top-10 most cut list, FAB bid ranges, and the best of the bone pile for a Week 8 that has four teams on bye. Here's what stood out.
What Makes an End Gamer
Chiz set the bar: an end gamer is a consistent, high-end performer who produces no matter what's happening around him. His teammates get hurt, the offense loses weapons, and he still finds a way to put up points. Very few players clear that bar.
Dex's rule of thumb: you want at least three of these guys by the end, you probably already drafted one, and more is better. The good news is that the price keeps falling as everyone's FAB dollars drain, and in a league like ours, one of them drops every single week. His other big takeaway was to target the post-bye players. A guy who has already had his bye week is a guy you never have to plan around again. "You want to get about three to four of these on your final roster to fill out your eight slots."
Running Backs
The four locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, and Christian McCaffrey. Chiz's criterion for a back is a rare ability to run and catch, and these four have it. Walker had a bad Sunday against Seattle ("a Tecmo week, where the computer had the juice and you just lose"), but that doesn't change anything. CMC has 16 catches over his last two games, and he's on bye this week.
The fifth spot is where the argument started. Dex's list of candidates was Cook, Taylor, Kyren Williams, Javonte Williams, Derrick Henry, and Bucky Irving.
Chiz and Pru: Kyren Williams. He catches, he runs, he's consistent. Blake Corum keeps "cutting into" his work (Chiz has been saying that for 35 years), but Williams keeps producing. Pru also likes Bucky Irving at six or seven, since Gainwell hasn't touched his snap count, and could make a case for Jalen Warren. Chiz crossed Javonte Williams and Henry off for lack of receiving work, and Taylor too, because he isn't a good receiver.
Dex: James Cook, and he wasn't backing down. Cook is on the best offense around, and his last five games produced 20, 19, 16, 22, and 24 fantasy points, with rushing yards of 135, 154, 75, 111, and 95. He's also never been shut out as a receiver, and he had a 58-yard receiving game last week. Chiz asked about fumbles, and Dex's answer was that Cook now covers the ball "like a loaf of bread," just like Cam Skattebo learned to. Cook has had his bye, which is a huge plus. Dex would put him fifth and has an argument for fourth.
Honorable mentions:
Jonathan Taylor: There's a lot of smoke about a trade. If he goes to a contender, Chiz and Dex both said he jumps right into that conversation. Dex: "If he goes to Minnesota, he immediately jumps into that fifth spot."
Saquon Barkley: He limped off the field several times, limped into the end zone, and has a bye week coming. Pru and Dex aren't ready to put him in. (Chiz said Barkley told reporters he felt great.)
Josh Jacobs: Back from injury with five catches and a touchdown in his first game. Dex asked whether that moves him into the top 10, and Pru wants to see him run more before spending big. Chiz likes his fresh legs but is skeptical of the offensive line, and Dex is too. Dex's rebuttal: Jacobs is far more talented than the guys who were running there before.
Wide Receivers
The top five: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb. Dex put it this way: "JSN is a permanent cheat code." He's fast and uncoverable, and he put up roughly 130 yards against the Chiefs even with double teams and their top corner on him. We don't think there's a real order within the five, and if you have any of them you're in great shape.
The next tier (honorable mentions): Zay Flowers, Chris Olave, Drake London, Malik Nabers, and Christian Watson.
Zay Flowers is Dex's pick. He's been "quarterback proof" even with Tyler Huntley under center, his target share is 31.4%, and he gets great separation. Pru thinks he's the most Tyreek-like of the group: a six-yard catch that becomes a 30-yard run. Pru has Flowers and JSN in one league and says that's been enough every week.
Olave has a 27% target share and Pru likes him a lot. London (29%) and Nabers (30.4%) round out the list. Chiz leans Nabers because the target share is going nowhere even with bad quarterback play: "It's not going to get worse than he's already got."
If you can land two of these, even from the bottom half of the tier, you're "living life pretty well."
A few target-share nuggets from Chiz:
Only two receivers this year have had a game with a 50% target share: JSN and CeeDee Lamb. JSN had 44% against the Chiefs last week, and Lamb had 46%.
JSN leads the league at 36.8%, Puka is at 32%, and Lamb is sixth at 30.9%.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has had 11 or more targets in five of his six games.
The Justin Jefferson question. He's not in the discussion, and it's scary. Jefferson has just 31 targets in five games, and Puka has 62 in the same five games. Chiz's explanation: Kyler Murray loves checkdowns and tight ends, not deep shots, and Jefferson is at his best deep. Pru's worry is that Minnesota keeps winning without him, so there's no pressure to change. "Hall of Fame talent," said Dex, but he's an outside-looking-in guy for now.
Tight Ends
This one was short. The list is Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle, and Isaiah Likely, and Chiz found the common thread: all four are number one in target share on their teams. At tight end, once you clear the talent bar, it's all about how many times you get the ball. McBride's share is 29%.
Travis Kelce is the only other tight end who leads his team in targets (20%, with Xavier Worthy at 19%). He won't be explosive like the old days, and Pru reminded us the 8-for-150 games are gone, but four for 60 is realistic if the Chiefs figure out their offense.
Tyler Warren came up as a fifth candidate. He's been hurt for a couple of weeks, but when he plays his targets run 5, 7, 10, 5, and 9, with catches of 3, 6, 9, 5, and 7. Pru's concern: he hits the over on receptions and the under on yardage because his routes are short.
Colston Loveland is the risky one. He's had 6-65-TD and 7-69-TD in his last two games (18.5 and 19.9 points), his target share is way up with Caleb Williams in the lineup, and Cole Kmet is out for the year. Dex pointed out that Loveland was one of the best tight ends in the league over the final eight games last year. Pru isn't a believer because there are other weapons in Chicago, and Chiz considers him too risky to call an end gamer. "You might be able to get a bargain-basement discount on a guy who may end up a top-five tight end," said Dex.
Quarterbacks
This was the controversial one. Dex said it was hard to narrow down a five, and he's right.
Josh Allen: His passing numbers aren't gaudy, but his rushing touchdowns make him the number one fantasy quarterback.
Lamar Jackson: When he's playing, he leads in points per game. The knock is a late-season schedule of Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Cincinnati, which Pru pointed out is tough for quarterbacks. Dex still believes in the talent, and Lamar's bye is still ahead.
Jared Goff: He's so steady. Dex: "If he only gets one touchdown, you're like, only one? What the hell, man?"
Joe Burrow: With Chase and Higgins, and Chase Brown in case they need to run, Cincinnati passes by default.
The fifth spot is where we split three ways.
Pru: Brock Purdy. He has a soft remaining schedule, he still has Kittle, and the 49ers' defense should keep the offense scoring. Purdy is on bye this week.
Chiz: Dak Prescott. The Cowboys' defense "blows," so Dak passes a ton, and he's throwing to CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Ryan Flournoy. Chiz admits he's still shaky and that Dak is nowhere near the top four.
Dex: Drake Maye. Dex avoided him early because of a brutal schedule, but in the last four weeks Maye has thrown for at least 235 yards every game (over 300 twice), thrown 12 touchdowns, and run for 54, 25, 24, and 26 yards with two more scores. His upcoming schedule is Miami, Green Bay, and Detroit, then a bye, then the Chargers and Buffalo. Week 14 at Minnesota and the Chiefs are the two landmines. And all of it is "with A.J. Brown having skillet hands."
The case for a quarterback in the top four is simple: you never wonder whether to start him. A group of five or six quarterbacks (Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Jayden Daniels, Bryce Young, Matthew Stafford, C.J. Stroud) are all good enough that you'd be arguing each week if you owned two.
Week 7 Key Injuries and the Week 8 Byes
Fewer injuries this week, which we badly needed.
Cam Skattebo was benched, played much better afterward, and now is out until around Week 10, though Chiz says he's tough and could return sooner.
Aaron Jones has a feared MCL sprain, which Chiz calls a yearly occurrence. He's out until Week 10 or 11, and Jordan Mason gets a big uptick.
On bye in Week 8: Houston, New Orleans, the Giants, and San Francisco. San Francisco hurts the most for fantasy, since Purdy, CMC, Kittle, and Mike Evans are all out. Also off: Stroud, Olave, Nabers, Likely, and Skattebo. If you own any of them, now's the time to find a fill-in from the bone pile.
Top 10 Most Cut Players: Verdicts and FAB Ranges
Pru ran through the most-cut list, and a few of the names are end gamers.
Derrick Henry: Back-to-back weeks at the top. A 5.9-point week instead of the projected 17. Our FAB calculator puts him at $86 to $141. Dex says he looks like tainted goods after getting chopped through multiple leagues. He doesn't catch the ball and has a bye coming, so don't go much above that range. If your league has friends from Baltimore who bid $250, let them.
Nico Collins: Another down week in Houston.
Kenneth Walker: The Chiefs' bad Sunday night hit his teams.
Josh Allen and 5. James Cook: Both were on bye. We call them end gamers, and teams cut them anyway.
Garrett Wilson: A struggle for the Jets. Rookie Omar Cooper Jr. is taking his target share, and Chiz said Wilson was not happy about it.
Sam LaPorta: First catch didn't come until the third quarter.
Isaiah Likely: First time on the list. Cam Skattebo and Nabers had the day for the Giants.
Jalen Coker: One catch for nine yards in a game where Carolina "took a big poo in their pants."
Bhayshul Tuten: On bye in Week 7.
What the FAB calculator says (a teaser for our Pro members, who get it weekly):
Walker and Cook (elite, post-bye): Think $150 on the low end, up to $240 to $250. Pru wouldn't go to $400, and Chiz reminded us to save something for the final four or five weeks.
Josh Allen (elite QB): At least $100, and a value purchase at $160 to $170. Quarterbacks go for less than running backs or receivers because the next-best option is pretty good. Chiz's warning: anyone spending $350 on Allen is making a mistake, since he's not that much better than the next quarterback, and the extra $80 to $100 is money you won't have later. Dex's tip is to watch which managers in your league have a bye-week hole at quarterback. Purdy owners need a quarterback this week, and they'll bid. If they have $102, bid $103.
Best of the Bone Pile (45% Owned or Less)
New cutoff this week: 45% owned or less. These are fill-ins for the Week 8 byes.
Quarterbacks
Chiz: Sam Darnold, at home against Chicago, with JSN to throw to. "That defense is not particularly scary to me."
Pru: Geno Smith, against Las Vegas. Pru called him last week, and he scored about 25. Still barely owned.
Dex: Jacoby Brissett, at Dallas in what's projected as the highest-scoring game of the week (54.5 over/under), a matchup of the 24th and 28th-ranked defenses. "It's going to be a flag football game in Jerry World."
Running backs
Pru: Dylan Sampson (Cleveland at Pittsburgh). He expects short passes to keep Pittsburgh's pass rush off and three-plus catches for Sampson, with 7 to 8 points.
Chiz: Bam Knight (Arizona at Dallas). Seven runs and five targets last week, and Chiz doesn't think Love plays. He joked that against Dallas that adds up to "975 yards and three touchdowns."
Dex: Kenneth Gainwell (Tampa vs. Atlanta). Sean Tucker is on IR, Gainwell is the main backup to Bucky Irving, and Dex thinks a high-scoring division game gets him flat-pass work and a floor of 9 or 10.
Wide receivers
Dex: Kendrick Bourne. With Marvin Harrison Jr. gone, Bourne is the No. 2 behind Michael Wilson. "He's not a sexy name, but you don't need sexy, you need points."
Chiz: Ryan Flournoy (Dallas vs. Arizona). Still lightly owned, with 11 points last week on four catches. Pru has him on his team and says his last three weeks were roughly 11.5, 17, and 11. His targets come at 12 to 25 yards, and he's good after the catch.
Pru: Makai Lemon (Washington). He nearly hit 20 last week, and somebody has to step up while Washington's top guys are out.
Tight ends
Pru: Michael Mayer (Las Vegas vs. the Jets). He's on the field a lot, and Pru has him for four or five catches and a floor of 8 to 9 points. (And yes, Pru noted it's Halloween week. Michael Myers jokes were made.)
Chiz: Chig Okonkwo (Washington vs. Philadelphia). He put up 13.9 last time out. Chiz thinks Daniels now knows what he's got.
Dex: Tyler Higbee (Rams vs. Chargers). Terrance Ferguson is out, with Davante Adams out too, so Higbee should get the routes.
The Pick of the Week
Pru picks: Carolina at Green Bay, under 47.5. "That sounds too high to me." Carolina should rebound from last week's no-show, but Pru doesn't think they keep pace with Green Bay's defense on the other side.
Last week's Cincinnati moneyline hit when the Bengals won at Baltimore. We're now at 52% on game picks for the season, which is officially break-even, and Chiz says we'll go over the top this week. Pro members get every pick, including props and the parlay of the week, emailed before the first game.
Thursday Night Football is coming up, so enjoy it, have a safe Halloween, and get more treats than tricks. Don't carry dead weight on your roster, because a new batch of players will drop every week. Go get your end gamers when they hit the wire, and until next week: stay shrewd.
Want the full guillotine breakdown every week, with rankings built for floor over fireworks, the FAB calculator, our best bets against the spread, and every pick on the board? That's what Shrewdness Pro is for, $8/month or $25/year. Check out our free rankings at theshrewdness.beam.ly.
Stay shrewd, everybody.