Every Chiefs fan on the planet is trying to forget 2025 ever happened. Worst season of the Mahomes era, six and eight, missed the playoffs for the first time since he was drafted — snapping seven straight AFC title game appearances. Then he tore his ACL and LCL down the stretch, and the whole thing just kind of died. Chiz and Dex sat down ahead of Week 1 to figure out what's actually different about this team, and whether the guys who've been chopping it up about Kansas City for the better part of four decades have any right to be optimistic again.
The Only Question That Matters: What Do We Get From Mahomes?
He tore his ACL and LCL roughly ten months ago and is set to start Week 1 against Denver — a timeline that looks almost absurd next to the competition. "I was looking at somebody the other day — Micah Parsons got hurt the same day as him, and he's targeting a mid-October return," Chiz points out. Mahomes hasn't taken a preseason snap, so nobody's actually seen it live. The best evidence anyone's got: Pru watching him sprint downfield, no hesitation, when Butker drilled a 69-yard field goal in camp. "He's not even in the game, but he went full tilt out to midfield," Pru says. "That, to me, was a big moment."
Don't expect fireworks early, though. With an undrafted rookie penciled in at left tackle behind Josh Simmons' Week 1 absence, both hosts expect a conservative game plan — get the ball out fast, lean on the run, protect the guy who matters most. "Seven Kelce receptions for thirteen yards — I'm fine with that," Pru says. Chiz agrees: "I don't know that we're gonna have a lot of deep balls in the first week."
The Offense Has a New Blueprint — and More Depth Than You'd Think
Eric Bieniemy is back as offensive coordinator, and both hosts think that matters more than people realize. "Every time Bienemy was the offensive coordinator, we were a top-five offense every single year," Dex says — a sharp contrast to a Chiefs offense that finished 20th and 21st without him. The headline addition is Kenneth Walker at running back, though neither host expects him to be a 25-touch workhorse. "I don't think he's proven you can use him every down, just from a durability standpoint," Chiz says. The expectation is a committee — Walker getting 15-20 touches, with Brashard Smith and rookie standout Emmett Johnson mixing in. "Emmett Johnson's good, man," Dex says. "That's our backup now."
At receiver, the room is deeper than its reputation. Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and a supporting cast that includes Jalen Royals and Cyrus Allen give the Chiefs what Chiz calls "probably the deepest wide receiver unit that Mahomes has had" — helped along by new receivers coach Chad O'Shea. "Who actually knows how to play wide receiver," Chiz notes dryly. "That always helps."
Then there's Kelce. Last ride, no debate about that. The question the crew wrestled with: which version shows up? "I think we're gonna get the excited, motivated leader that Kelce always has been," Dex says. "He already looks faster than he did last year." Pru, who drafted Kelce in this year's Shrewdness league, is hoping Dex is right — and both agree the distractions are gone. No three-peat pressure, no wedding. "It's all in the rear view now, baby."
Defense: Less Star Power, More Depth Across the Board
The headline names are gone — Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson both landed with the Rams — and that's rattled some nerves. But both hosts think the unit as a whole might actually be deeper. Chris Jones gets real help up front with Tonga and rookie Peter Woods rotating through the interior, and for the first time in a while the Chiefs have legitimate speed off the edge with Karlaftis and R. Mason Thomas. "We've needed somebody who can come around that edge," Chiz says.
The secondary is the bigger unknown — a rookie corner in Mansoor Delane, LaJarius Sneed back in the fold after a down year in Tennessee (and, notably, re-signed thanks to a scoop Chiz's son picked up in a Target parking lot before anyone else knew), and depth pieces like Jaylon Canady and Nazir Williams still finding their footing. "I think he's been injured — I don't think that was the LaJarius Sneed we had before," Chiz says. "But if we get him at seventy-five percent, that's solid enough." What both hosts keep coming back to: leadership at every level. Chris Jones on the line, Nick Bolton at linebacker, Alohi Gilman at safety. "There's gonna be some rookie mistakes," Dex says. "I just hope they aren't game-altering ones."
The Verdict: Over or Under 10.5 Wins?
Here's the number that got both hosts leaning the same direction: by Vegas's own numbers, the Chiefs' 2026 schedule ranks as the 23rd hardest in the league. But by last year's actual win percentage, it's the 5th hardest. That's an unusually wide gap — and it's why Dex and Chiz both like the Chiefs to clear their 10.5 win total, landing around 11. Pru's even more bullish, pointing back to a preseason projection the crew made months ago: 11-6. Part of the case is math nobody's arguing with — a Raiders team likely starting a hobbled Kirk Cousins or a rookie, and a Broncos team the Chiefs have historically split with, should be good for a couple of near-automatic division wins before the schedule backloads in the second half.
Do They Even Win the AFC West?
This is where the crew splits. Dex has the Chargers winning the division outright — 12 or 13 wins, if their offensive line (the problem that sank them a year ago) holds up. "I just don't know how you can mess all of it up," he says. Chiz and Pru see real regression coming for Denver, but for the first time in the Mahomes era, Reid is facing legitimate coaching competition across the board — Harbaugh in LA, Peyton now in Denver. Still, both are cautiously optimistic about the Chiefs' path, with the caveat that Josh Simmons needs to get healthy, Delane needs to develop fast, and Sneed and Jones both need to look like their old selves.
Chiz sums up where the show lands heading into Week 1: "If the Chiefs just make the playoffs, I'm all in. They find ways to win in the playoffs. If we can get there, that's the key — and I think they've got the tools to at least get there this year."
Monday night, home, minus 2.5 against Denver. Get up, Pat.
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Stay shrewd, everybody.